Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Report - Q3 2022

As predicted in our Coral Gables and Coconut Grove report for Q2 2022, sales slowed down significantly over Q3 2022. However, considering the third-quarter is generally the slowest quarter of the year, prices increased, days on market were stable, and inventory stayed low – this particular sub-market showed signs of health, unlike the national housing market that is showing signs of worsening stability.

Read on for more details on how this pairing of Miami's most beautiful neighborhoods - Coconut Grove and Coral Gables - performed year-over-year, as well as against the overall Miami market trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory in our exclusive, full-length analysis for luxury condos this Q3 2022.

For the purpose of this Miami submarket luxury condo report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above.

Q3 2022 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Highlights:

• Sales down -55.6% from previous year's record-setting performance
• 12-month Sales Trendline shifted from a positive curve in Q2 2022 to negative in Q3 2022
• Price per Square Foot up 9.8% year-over-year to $756/Sq. Ft.
• Sales Price flat year-over-year
• Days on Market down -32% year-over-year
• Inventory up 20% year-over-year to 6 months – back to being lowest in Miami
• Coral Gables and Coconut Grove continued as a strong seller's market

Table of Contents

1. Q3 2022 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Q3 2022 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Price Trends
3. Q3 2022 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
4. Q3 2022 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
5. Q3 2022 Conclusion
   
   

Q3 2022 - Coconut Grove & Coral Gables Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY

Q3 2022 Sales Drop -55.6% Year-Over-Year - Negative Trendline.

As predicted in our Q2 2022 market report for the grouping, sales took a seasonal break this third quarter. After months of being in overdrive, it was quite expected for the market to stop and catch its breath. Echoing the slower pace of the overall Miami market, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove (collectively) reported the following Sales Trends in Q3 2022:

• Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021. Sales declined 55.6% year-over-year, down from 63 sales in Q3 2021 to 28 for the same quarter of 2022. (Fig. 1)
• Q3 2022 vs Q2 2021. Sales dropped 69.2% quarter-over-quarter, down from 91 sales in Q2 to 28 in Q3 this year. (Fig. 1.1)
• Interestingly, even as sales dropped significantly compared to the previous year's record-setting high, numbers were still higher than any comparable quarter from 2020 or before. (See Q3 charts in Fig. 2.1) This shows that even though the luxury condo market lost some steam, it was not crashing and is most likely to maintain its growth threshold set over the past two years.
• In a month-on-month comparison, July 2022 reported 10 sales compared to 20 for the same month last year. August this year reported 9 sales against 23 from the same month in 2021. And, September reported 9 sales against 20 from the same month last year. (Fig 2.2)
• Considering the third quarter of the year is usually the softest (as per historical data), it's no surprise that market momentum would hit a plateau. Going into the fourth quarter of the year, we, as luxury condo experts, expect this slower pace to continue before picking up somewhere around mid-January, as it does every year in Miami.

With sales dipping, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 expectedly went back to a negative trajectory from its positive curve in Q2 2022.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2022 - Fig. 2.1

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2022 - Fig. 2.2

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Q3 2022 - Coconut Grove & Coral Gables Luxury Condo Prices Up YoY

Q3 2022 Price per Square Foot up 9.8% to $756, Median Price flat year-over-year. 

Deviating partially from the overall Miami market trend of higher year-over-year price per square foot and a lower year-over-year median sales price in Q3 2022, the combined neighborhoods of Coral Gables and Coconut Grove reported as below:

• Price per Square Foot increased by 9.8%, up from $689 in Q3 2021 to $756 in Q3 this year. (Fig. 1)
• Median Sales Price stayed almost flat (1.1%), shifting marginally up from $1,515,000 in Q3 2021 to $1,531,250 in the comparable quarter of 2022. (Fig. 1)
• A look at the 5-year quarterly price per square foot chart in Fig. 3 below reveals that Q3 prices closed in the highest ranges – indicating that sellers received good value for their luxury condo investments in this grouping.
  
  

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2022 - Fig. 3

Q3 2022 - Coconut Grove & Coral Gables Days on Market Up QoQ, But Down YoY

32% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. In line with the overall Miami luxury condo market trend for Days on Market, this neighborhood pairing reported a decline in year-over-year numbers, but increase in quarter-over-quarter days on market.

In Q3 2022, luxury condos spent 20 fewer days on the market compared to Q3 last year and 21 extra days compared to Q2 2022 (Fig. 4). This shows that even as momentum dropped, buyers and sellers were quick to come to a consensus compared to the previous year.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2022 – Fig. 4

Q3 2022 - Coconut Grove & Coral Gables Lowest Inventory in Miami – Sellers' Market Holds

Q3 2022 closed with 6 months of Inventory. In line with the overall market trend in Miami, inventory in this pairing of lush tropical neighborhoods stayed very low. At 6 months, inventory was below the 9-12 months range of a balanced market, keeping sellers firmly in charge of negotiations as multiple buyers put in competitive offers (with most in cash).

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased by 50% from 4 months in June 2022.
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory was up 20% from 5 months in September 2021.

One of the first sub-markets in Miami to shift from a buyer-dictated to seller's market several quarters ago, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove continued keeping the lowest levels of inventory of all the Miami neighborhoods under review.

As real estate experts, we recommend sellers to consider selling now to make the most of this dynamic market with low inventory and high prices, especially considering we expect a softening of the market in the next quarters ahead. Those looking to buy a luxury home in these historically-significant, beautiful neighborhoods can search Coral Gables or Coconut Grove condos for sale here.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2022 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Q3 2022 - Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Conclusion

In line with the overall Miami market trends noted for Q3 2022, this historic sub-market may have paced down but still showed solid signs of health. So, even as sales yielded to a seasonal slowdown, numbers were higher than any third quarter noted in pre-pandemic years.

As expected, the 12-month Sales Trendline down-shifted into a negative trajectory from its positive curve in the previous quarter. Considering the luxury condo market generally picks up pace after December's landmark Art Basel event and mid-January, we, as luxury real estate experts, expect Q4 2022 to close softer as well.

On the price front, the Price per Square Foot for this grouping posted year-over-year gains, much like the overall market. At $756/Sq. Ft., sellers continued receiving good value for their luxury condos in Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Again, consistent with the overall Miami trend of lower year-over-year Days on Market, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove too reported a decline – indicating healthy buyer-seller communication.

Being the quick-moving market it is, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove collectively reported the lowest levels of inventory in all of Miami in Q3 2022. Since inventory stayed below the 9-12-month marker of a balanced market, sellers kept their stronghold on the market, continuing to steer negotiations in their favor.

Looking at the next phase of the luxury condo market in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove, we, as real estate experts, expect the following factors to influence trends heading into the end of the year:

• We expect the recent business migration trends coupled with our tax-saving policies to continue drawing in high-net-worth buyers, families and well-paid employees.
• We expect higher interest rates to discourage only a few sellers who may have locked in lower mortgage rate or even refinanced at a more lucrative rate. Most buyers are paying in cash. 
• We expect a weaker Euro to cause only a slight shift, considering our foreign buyer statistics are dominated by Latin American (39%) and Canadian (25%) clientele rather than Europeans (12%).
• We expect our branded luxury condos, like Mr. C Residences by the Cipriani brothers, coupled with lush outdoors, a yachting culture, rich cultural programming, and fabulous year-round weather to continue pulling in well-heeled buyers from across the globe to these very desirable neighborhoods.
• We expect the market to shift into a more balanced position, as new construction projects continue over the next 2-3 years.
  
  

Questions or comments about the stats? Want more info on Miami condos? Contact Sep at sniakan@blackbookproperties.com or call 305-725-0566.