Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Report Q4 2019

CondoBlackBook's detailed analysis of annual data outlined in the Q4 2019 overall Miami luxury condo report revealed that 2019 closed with higher sales, higher prices, but higher days on market, and slightly higher inventory compared to 2018. With the metrics still largely in favor of buyers, data show that Coral Gables and Coconut Grove overall annual sales and prices dropped about 13% and 10%, respectively. Read on to see more annual numbers and how the Coconut Grove and Coral Gables luxury condo market fared over the last quarter of 2019.  

For the purpose of this Miami luxury condo market report, we've only featured properties priced $1 million and above.

Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Yearly Summary:

• Annual sales down 12.9%
• Annual price per sq. ft. down to $558 - the lowest in Miami for luxury condos
• Annual days on market higher in 2019 compared to 2018
• Inventory still high at 28 months

Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Q4 Highlights:

• Year closes with positive 12-month sales trendline, indicates prospects for growth
• Q4 year-over-year sales flat
• Sales prices and price/sq. ft. fell year-over-year in Q4
• Days on market declined year-over-year in Q4

Table of Contents

1. Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Price Trends
3. Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
4. Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
5. Conclusion
   
   

Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Yearly Summary - Fig. 1.1

Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Quarterly Summary - Fig. 1.2

Annual Luxury Condo Sales Down, Flat for Q419 YoY

Annual sales down, though 12-month trendline stays positive. Going against the overall market trend in Miami, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove's annual luxury condo sales declined 12.9% in this combined district when compared to 2018 (fig. 1.1). With Q1-Q3 2019 registering lower sales year-over-year, only an exceptionally good Q4 could have changed trends by year-end. Nonetheless, what's interesting to note is that 2019's annual sales were higher than the annual figures for 2015, 2016 and 2017 (fig. 2.1).

Tracing sales over the last 12 months, fig. 2.2 reports a positive trendline, showing that this combined market closed the year with good momentum, which could translate into better sales for the opening quarter of 2020.

Q419 sales flat year-over-year. Sales in Q4 2019 matched numbers from the same quarter last year. This was somewhat of a recovery after the first three quarters posted lower year-over-year sales compared to the same time 2018 (fig. 2.1). However, it's worth pointing out  that Q4 2019 reported the highest year-over-year sales in a fourth-quarter from 2015 to 2017.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Quarterly Sales Heatmap - Fig. 2.1

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.2

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2019 - Fig. 2.3

Annual and Q4 YoY Luxury Condo Prices Down

Annual median price drops with price per sq. ft. falling to $558/sq. ft. Again, moving against the overall Miami luxury condo market trend of higher year-over-year prices, this combined district reports a 9.9% decline in its median sale price and 5.3% dip in price per sq. ft. (fig. 1.1). Closing the year with a median price of $558/sq. ft., down from $589/sq. ft. for 2018, this grouping reports the cheapest price per sq. ft. for luxury condos in Miami compared to Miami and the Beaches or the district of Greater Downtown, indicating this is an excellent opportunity for long-term buyers to enter this Miami submarket.

Q4 sales price and price per sq. ft. decline year-over-year. While the median price in the Grove and Gables fell 8.4% for the quarter year-over-year, the price per sq. ft. registered a steep 16.7% decline (fig. 1.2). Looking at a four-year snapshot of quarterly prices per sq. ft., it's worth noting that Q4 2019 closed with the lowest price since Q1 2017 (fig. 3.1).

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2019 - Fig. 3.1

Annual Days on Market Higher, Lower for Q4 YoY

Annual days on market trends higher. Increasing from a median of 83 days in 2018 to 90 days in 2019, luxury condos sat seven days longer on the market (fig. 1.1). This is in line with the overall Miami market trend. On an annual basis, the metric shows that buyers and sellers had a tough time reaching a consensus.

Decline in year-over-year days on market in Q4. Despite annual data, looking at the last quarter of the year, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove luxury condos spent 22 fewer days on the market compared to 2018, showing improved dialogue between buyers and sellers on a year-over-year basis (fig. 1.2).

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2019 Heatmap – Fig. 4.1

Increase in Inventory Favors Buyers

Inventory up to 28 months. Slightly higher than September end's of 26 months, inventory levels for the Gables and Grove luxury condos posted an uptick for this combined neighborhood (fig. 5.1), in line with but lower than the overall Miami luxury condo market trend (Miami had 44 months of inventory in December). And, even though the metric is down from March's peak of 38 months, it has some way to go before reaching the ideal 9-12 months of a balanced market. So, buyers can continue enjoying the perks of lower prices and ample choices as they shop for Coral Gables or Coconut Grove condos for sale here.

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

*Starting March 2019, CondoBlackBook has only considered properties priced $1 million and upwards for our luxury condo study, instead of the previous $600K benchmark. This means, that while our historical data compares to condos priced $600K and higher, post March 2019, the numbers represent properties priced $1 million and higher only.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Months of Condo Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Dec. 2019 - Fig. 5.1

Conclusion

Collectively, the Coral Gables and Coconut Grove neighborhoods are seen deviating from the major trends of the overall luxury condo market in Miami. Annual sales volume as well as condo prices report a decline, whereas the overall market trends higher for these metrics. The 12-month sales trendline also keeps positive against the flat trendline of the overall Miami report. The only metrics to fall in line with the overall market trends are days on market and months of inventory, as they post increases.

Again, with more luxury condos sitting on the market, CondoBlackBook's data analysis continues favoring buyers in this market. But, just like we mention in our overall report, if buyers continue trickling in from high-tax states, prices are kept reasonable, inventory goes down at a faster pace with 2020 having a low cycle of deliveries, and buyers take the opportunity of having historically low mortgage rates as well as buying options, we should see signs of a corrective shift this year.

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Questions or comments about the stats? Want more info on Miami condos? Contact Sep at sniakan (at) hbroswell.com or call 305-725-0566.

Cover photo: Coral Gables Museum - Merrick Park, courtesy of MiamiAndBeaches.com