Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report Q2 2020

CondoBlackBook.com's overall Miami luxury condo market report for Q2 2020 revealed the full impact of the pandemic with an inevitable slowdown in sales and increase in inventory for all of Miami's luxury condos. This has naturally extended the life cycle of the ongoing buyer's market trend for luxury condos. Days spent on the market dropped, partly due to sellers taking properties off the market and partly due to an improved buyer-seller dialogue. Prices, however, posted an increase, showing that sellers still got fair value for their luxury condos.

Analysis of the Greater Downtown Miami (GDM) neighborhood (inclusive of Edgewater and Brickell), continues the overall Miami trends -- sales dropped and inventory increased slightly. However, Edgewater turns out to be the least affected neighborhood in all of Miami, in terms of a sales slowdown due to the pandemic.

On the other hand, Brickell bears the full brunt of the slowdown, reporting the biggest drop in sales of all Miami neighborhoods part of our study. Edgewater and Brickell also report the highest levels of inventory in all of Miami. Read on for more details and how the Greater Downtown Miami luxury condo market fared in the second quarter, individually as well as compared to the overall Miami market.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

For the purpose of this report, we've included areas with the zipcodes 33129, 33130, 33131, 33132, 33137 – essentially Brickell Hammock, Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District. Further, this luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above.

Greater Downtown Miami Area Luxury Condo Market 2Q20 Highlights

• Sales drop 67.5% year-over-year due to global health crisis
• 12-month trendline stays negative from Q1-2020 to Q2-2020
• Price per sq. ft. flat year-over-year, slips 10% quarter-to-quarter
• Median Sales Price up 8.7% year-over-year
• Days on Market jump 139.5% year-over-year
• Inventory increases to highest since March 2019

Edgewater

• Sales show max stability of all Miami neighborhoods, reporting only 25% decline year-over-year
• 12-month trendline shifts from slightly positive in 1Q20 to slightly negative in 2Q20
• Price per Sq. ft. increases 18.4% year-over-year, recording highest growth of all Miami neighborhoods
• Median Sales Price up 7.7% year-over-year
• Days on Market down 11.8% year-over-year
• Inventory increases to highest in Miami

Brickell

• Sales most affected by pandemic-related loss in momentum, decline 78.1% year-over-year
• Price per Sq. ft. flat year-over-year, declines 13% quarter-over-quarter
• Median Sales Price up 2.3% year-over-year
• Days on Market surge 361% year-over-year
• Inventory increases to second-highest in Miami

Table of Contents

1. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends
3. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
4. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
5. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
6. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
7. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
9. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
10. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
11. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
12. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
13. Conclusion

2Q20 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Trends: Q2 YoY Sales Down

67.5% drop in year-over-year Sales with negative trendline. Absorbing the full impact of the global health crisis, this Greater Downtown grouping posts a 67.5% decrease in year-over-year Sales -- in-step with the overall Miami market (fig. 1). While a slowdown was expected due to the lockdown of March and April, a more than 50% drop in a second quarter, which is usually the strongest of the year, suggests that the GDM luxury condo market could take a while to recover. This is further substantiated by the 12-month trendline (fig. 2.3) staying negative between Q1 and Q2 this year.

A closer look into the Monthly Sales trends of fig. 2.2 reveals that April and May have been the biggest contributors to this loss in momentum. While April registered only 5 sales against 17 last year, May had no sales to report compared to last year's 14. However, June posted 6 sales compared to 9 in the same month last year, which shows that as the market adjusted to the "new normal," pent up demand did make a comeback. 

As real estate experts, we tend to see that the luxury condo market in Miami is quite active going into the third-quarter. However, it remains to be seen how much this momentum will carry for the Greater Downtown grouping.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Luxury Condo Price/Sq. Ft. Flat, Sales Price Up YoY

Price/sq. ft. stays flat year-over-year at $647. Deviating from the overall market trend of increasing prices, the Median Price/Sq. Ft. posts a marginal decline of 1%, keeping the price mostly flat, going from $654 in the same quarter last year to $647 this year (fig. 1). On a quarter-to-quarter basis, however, luxury condos posted a decrease of 10.1%, down from $720 in 1Q20. It's also worth noting that the median price per sq. ft. trended in the mid-ranges of the quarterly prices traced over the past four years (see fig. 3 below).

On the other hand, the Median Sales Price trended in sync with the overall market trend, reporting an year-over-year increase of 8.7% (fig. 1). The sales price in Greater Downtown Miami went up from $1,334,000 in Q2 last year to $1,450,000 this year.

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Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Days on Market Up YoY in Downtown

139.5% increase in year-over-year Days on Market. Greater Downtown's luxury condos spent 113 more Days on Market compared to the same quarter in 2019 (fig. 4), and 63 more days compared to the first quarter of this year. The metric moved in contrast to the overall market trend in Miami. This spike is mostly fueled by the large increase in Brickell's Days on Market values, which is also the highest of all neighborhoods in our study (see fig. 14 further below). However, what will be worth noting is how this metric reacts once the market settles back into its pre-COVID momentum.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Inventory Highest Since Mar. 2019, Buyers Gain

2Q20 closes with 111 months of Inventory. Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami, Greater Downtown's luxury condo inventory increased 70.8% year-over-year, going up from 65 months last June to 111 months this year (fig. 5). On a quarter-to-quarter basis, inventory was up 58.6% from March's closing of 70 months.

This sharp increase is more so due to the pandemic-driven loss in momentum rather than an addition of new inventory. Both Edgewater and Brickell reported the highest months of inventory this quarter, making levels move further away from the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market. Buyers now have more time and opportunity on hand to seize the best deals in the neighborhood, but not with substantial decreases in prices. To see which luxury condos are available, search the Greater Downtown Miami area here.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Edgewater Market Trends (33132 and 33137)

1Q20 Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary – Fig. 6

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY, But Most Stable in Miami

Q2 sales show resilience, with 25% dip year-over-year and slightly negative trendline. Although in sync with the overall market trend of declining sales for the quarter, Edgewater reports the most stability in the face of the global health crisis by posting only a 25% drop in year-over-year sales (fig. 6). One of only three neighborhoods (in our study) reporting minimal sales loss in Q2, Edgewater reports the smallest decline in numbers with Fisher Island and South Beach closely following in second and third place.

This stability is further illustrated in the 12-month trendline of fig. 7.2, as it only tips slightly negative from its flat-positive angle in the previous quarter.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Edgewater Price/Sq. Ft. Up with Highest YoY Growth in Miami

Price/sq. Ft. up 18.4% to $642, Median Sales Price also up 7.7% year-over-year. Consistent with the overall trend of increasing prices in Miami, Edgewater reports the highest percentage growth in its year-over-year Price/Sq. Ft. compared to all other neighborhoods in our study. The Price per Sq. Ft. increases 18.4%, up from $542 in the same quarter of 2019 to $642 this year (fig. 8). Following suit, the Median Sales Price also increased 7.7.%, up from $1,384,000 same quarter last year to $1,490,000 this Q2 (fig. 6).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per sq. ft. below (fig. 8) further reveals that prices have been steadily inching towards the higher-end of the price range since 2Q19 (1Q20 being the only exception).

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Days on Market Down YoY for Luxury Condos in Edgewater

11.8% drop in year-over-year Days on Market. Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami, Edgewater's luxury condos spent 17 fewer days on market (median) compared to the same quarter of 2019, and 4 fewer days compared to Q1 this year (fig. 6). This is a positive indication for the sub-neighborhood, showing that buyers and sellers had smoother interactions over the year.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Edgewater Inventory Increases to Highest in Miami

Q2 closes with 119 months of Inventory. In sync with the overall market trend in Miami, Edgewater's luxury condo inventory increased 16.7% over June-closing last year (102 months) and 65.3% over March's closing of 72 months this year. Even though the sub neighborhood reported the lowest loss in sales, inventory has moved further away from the 9-12-month benchmark of an ideal market. With the heaviest inventory of all Miami neighborhoods included in our study, buyers should use this window of opportunity to find suitable deals before prices increase any further. To find what's available, search Edgewater condos for sale here.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Brickell Market Trends (33129, 33130 and 33131)

2Q20 Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Brickell Luxury Condo Sales Down to Lowest YoY 

78.1% drop in year-over-year Sales with negative trendline. With the biggest percentage drop in year-over-year sales of all the neighborhoods in our study, Brickell bears the maximum impact of a COVID-related loss in momentum. Declining a considerable 78.1% against the same quarter last year (fig. 11), the 12-month trendline also stays negative between 1Q20 and 2Q20.

Considering the steep slope of the trendline in fig. 12.2, it is easy to conclude that this financial district could take longer to recover unless the next two quarters come up with higher than average demand.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Brickell Luxury Condo Price/Sq. Ft. Flat, Sales Price Up YoY

Price/sq. ft. flat at $669, Median Price increases 2.3% year-over-year. Partly deviating from the general market trend, Brickell reported a flat Price/Sq. ft. with increased Median Sales Price compared to an increase in both metrics in the overall report.

The Price per Sq. Ft. dipped a marginal 0.4%, down from $672 in the same quarter last year to $669 this year (fig. 11). The Median Sales Price went up 2.3%, from $1,332,500 in the same quarter of 2019 to $1,362,500 this year.

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per sq. ft. below (fig. 13) reveals that prices closed in the mid ranges for the period under review, 13% lower than the previous quarter's record high.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Brickell Days on Market Up YoY with Highest Increase in Miami

361% increase in year-over-year Days on Market. Posting the highest percentage increase of all the neighborhoods in our study, Brickell reports a 361% surge in year-over-year Days on Market. Going against the overall market trend in Miami, luxury condos spent 213 more days on the market compared to the same quarter last year (fig. 11).

On a quarter-to-quarter basis too, Brickell's luxury condos spent 138 more days on market, increasing from 134 in Q1 this year to 272 in Q2 (fig. 14). It will be worth noting how this metric reacts in the third-quarter as the market tries to normalize to its pre-COVID momentum.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Brickell Inventory Increases to Second-Highest in Miami

Q2 closes with 105 months of Inventory. With a 102% increase in year-over-year numbers, Brickell reports the second-highest level of Months of Inventory (105) in all of Miami. Also significantly up from March-end's 68 months, the metric moves with the overall market trend. Further away from reaching the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market, buyers hold a good bargaining position in this financial district with an abundance of choices working in their favor. To search available Brickell condos for sale, click here.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Conclusion

On the whole, Sales for this entire Greater Downtown Miami grouping (Edgewater and Brickell included) were down as a result of the pandemic-related global slowdown, just like the overall market. While Edgewater was the least affected in terms of sales, Brickell bore the maximum impact with a higher-than-average slack compared to any other neighborhood in our study for the quarter. Trendlines tracing sales over the past 12 months were negative across the board.

However, the good news was that sales prices were mostly up or flat, almost in step with the overall market trend. Edgewater took the lead in terms of highest percentage growth in Price/Sq. ft. compared to any other neighborhood in our overall study. This showed that sellers still managed to get good value for their luxury condos.

The Days on Market were down only in Edgewater, like the overall market, whereas Brickell and the Greater Downtown grouping reported an increase. Considering Greater Downtown Miami generally has the heaviest inventory of all the neighborhoods in our study, the trend continued as Inventory was higher across the board. Edgewater and Brickell reported the highest levels in all of Miami, in that order, keeping the market buyer-friendly with lots of options.

Now that the major impact of the COVID-19 outbreak has surfaced, we're yet to see how this wild card affects numbers in the upcoming quarters. Another wild card to watch for are the Presidential elections, which typically lead to buyer hesitation. But this is a year like none other. Nonetheless, Miami still remains a buyer favorite no matter where you are buying from, with our zero income tax, great weather year-round and effective local leaders, which have kept demand coming through as we move into the third-quarter and onward. Until then, buyers can enjoy having many luxury condo options with inventory levels taking a while to settle down.

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Questions or comments about the stats? Interested in browsing the market? Contact Sep at sniakan (at) hbroswell.com or call 305-725-0566.