Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report Q3 2022

With signs of a slowdown first emerging in Miami's beach neighborhoods during the second-quarter, this urban core grouping followed suit with a slowdown in Q3 2022. Considering the third-quarter is generally the slowest of the year (as confirmed by historical data) and that the luxury condo market had been reporting record sales since Q4 2020, it was inevitable for the market to pause and catch its breath.

In Q3 2022, when looking at the Greater Downtown Miami neighborhood grouping, Brickell emerged as the strongest sub-market, posting the least negative impact on year-over-year sales trends. It was also the fastest-selling market for luxury condos in Q3 2022. The waterfront Edgewater neighborhood remained the most expensive sub-market in the Greater Downtown area - reporting a median Price/SF of $867, while Downtown Miami was the most affordable overall.

Overall, in Greater Downtown Miami, the market remained healthy as prices increased, days on market kept to their lowest, and inventory hovered stable year-over-year - keeping this urban core a balanced market for buyers and sellers, in an otherwise seller-friendly luxury condo market for Miami.

Quick summary of Q3 2022 for the Greater Downtown Miami area includes:

• Brickell had the highest sales volume (72 sales)
• Brickell showed the least negative impact on YoY sales growth (-22%)
• Edgewater posted the highest median sales price ($1.4 million)
• Edgewater posted the highest price per square foot ($867)

Read below for our exclusive and in-depth analysis on how Greater Downtown, Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown Miami performed over Q3 2022, along with a detailed comparison to the overall Miami luxury condo market trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory.

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2022 YoY (Number of Sales)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2022 YoY (Median Sales Price)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2022 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)

For this report, we've only included areas with zipcodes 33129, 33130, 33131, 33132, 33137 – Brickell Hammock, Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District. This luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above, and generally does not include pre-construction condo sales.

Q3 2022 - Greater Downtown Miami Area Luxury Condo Market Highlights

• Sales drop -38.3% year-over-year – still higher than any 3Q from 2020 or before
• 12-month Sales Trendline negative for the first time since Q4 2020
• Price per Square Foot up 10.4% year-over-year to $829
• Median Sales Price flat year-over-year
• Days on Market down year-over-year - still at lowest-ever
• Inventory flat at 10 months
• Greater Downtown Miami still a sellers' market

Q3 2022 - Greater Downtown Sub-Neighborhood Highlights

• Winner: Brickell was the most resilient market in Q3 with lowest percentage (-22%) impact on year-over-year sales
• 12-Month Sales Trendline negative across the board, except Downtown Miami
• Winner: Edgewater luxury condos offered maximum value to sellers in Greater Downtown Miami with highest percentage growth (17%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft.
• Winner: Edgewater again reported the highest Median Sales Price of $1.4 million
• Winner: Edgewater continued as the most expensive neighborhood in Greater Downtown, priced at $867/Sq. Ft.
• Winner: Brickell posted the highest percentage decline in year-over-year Days on Market (-37%), emerging as the fastest-selling for luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami
• Brickell reported the lowest levels of inventory (9 months)

Table of Contents

1. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends
3. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
4. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
5. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
6. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
7. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
9. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
10. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
11. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
12. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
13. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
14. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
15. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
16. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
17. Conclusion
     

Q3 2022 - Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Trends: Sales Down YoY

Q3 2022 Sales down -31.6% - Negative Trendline. 

As predicted in our Q2 2022 luxury condo market report for Greater Downtown Miami, Q3 2022 reported lower year-over-year sales owing to a seasonal slowdown (as per historical analysis). Breaking its record-setting streak since Q4 2020, it was quite expected of the market to pause and catch its breath.

Consistent with the slower pace of the overall Miami market, Greater Downtown Miami reported the following Sales Trends for Q3 2022:

• Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021. Sales declined 31.6% year-over-year, down from 155 in Q3 2021 to 106 sales for the same quarter of 2022. (Fig.1)
• Q3 2022 vs Q2 2021. Sales dropped 54.5% quarter-over-quarter, down from 233 in Q2 to 106 sales in Q3 this year. (Fig. 1.1)

It is worth nothing that even though sales may have drastically declined compared to the previous year's record-setting high, Q3 2022 volume was higher than any third-quarter noted in 2020 or from before. This indicates that the luxury condo market maintained its growth threshold set over the past two years, even as sales took a seasonal breather.

• Brickell had the highest sales volume (72 sales). This core financial district also took over as the most resilient market in the Greater Downtown area, posting only a 22% decline in year-over-year sales.

Looking into the Monthly Sales trends of Fig. 2.2, July reported 30 sales (compared to 65 in 2021), August reported 44 sales (against 51 in 2021), and September posted 32 sales (compared to 39 in the previous year).

As real estate experts, we expect the luxury condo market to close 2022 on a soft note, considering the market usually picks up momentum only after December's Art Basel or by mid-January.

With momentum slowing way down, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 expectedly took on a negative trajectory in Q3 2022 – breaking its positive streak that had continued from Q4 2020 up to Q2 2022.

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2022 - Fig. 2.1

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2022 - Fig. 2.2

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Q3 2022 - Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot Up YoY

Q3 2022 Price per Square Foot up 10.4% to $829, Median Price flat year-over-year. 

Almost in line with the overall market trend of higher year-over-year price per square foot and a lower median price, Greater Downtown Miami reported similar trends:

• Price per Square Foot increased 10.4%, up from $751 in Q3 2021 to $829 in Q3 this year. (Fig. 1)
• A look at the 5-year quarterly price per square foot chart in Fig. 3 below reveals that Q3 prices closed in the Higher Ranges – indicating that sellers continued receiving great value for their luxury condo investments in this mainland grouping.
• Median Sales Price stayed almost flat, declining marginally by -1.3% - slightly down from $1,350,000 in Q3 last year to $1,332,500 in the comparable quarter of 2022. (Fig. 1)
  
  

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2022 - Fig. 3

Q3 2022 - Days on Market Flat at Lowest-Ever in Greater Downtown Miami 

34.9% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Partly deviating from the overall market trend of a decline in year-over-year numbers but increase in quarter-over-quarter Days on Market, Greater Downtown Miami reported the following values.

In Q3 2022, luxury condos spent 30 fewer days on the market compared to Q3 last year but the same number of days compared to the previous quarter (Fig. 4). With values still at an all-time low, this shows buyer-seller communication stayed at its best in the mainland.

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2022 – Fig. 4

Q3 2022 - Condo Inventory Flat YoY in Greater Downtown Miami - Moving to Balanced Market

Q3 2022 closed with 10 months of Inventory. Partly deviating from the overall market trend of higher year-over-year values, inventory in Greater Downtown Miami stayed flat year-over-year. At 10 months, inventory fell within the 9-12 months benchmark of an ideal market – indicating that even though the Miami market might be seller-dominated, the urban core presented a level playing field to buyers and sellers.

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory was down 25% from 8 months in June 2022. 
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory stayed flat at 10 months between September of 2021 and 2022.

Buyers looking to live closer to work in Brickell or the urban core of Miami can search the Greater Downtown Miami area for available condos for sale, here.

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2022 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Edgewater Market Trends (33132 and 33137)

Q3 2022 - Edgewater Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY

Q3 Sales down -45.9% year-over-year - Negative trendline. Consistent with the slowdown seen in the overall market report, Edgewater reported a decline in sales volume:

• Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021. Sales decreased 45.9% year-over-year, down from 37 in Q3 2021 to 20 in this third-quarter of 2022. (Fig. 6)
• Even as quarter-over-quarter sales dropped by 65.5% (Fig. 6.1), Q3 2022 sales remained higher than any third-quarter from 2020 or before. (Fig. 7.1)

With sales taking a cyclical break, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 7.2 shifted into a negative trajectory – breaking its 7-quarter streak of reporting positive curves between Q4 2020 and Q2 2022.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2022 - Fig. 7.1

Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales Trendline - Fig. 7.2

Q3 2022 - Edgewater Price per Square Foot Still Up at Highest in Greater Downtown Miami

Q3 Price per Square Foot up 16.6% to $867, Median Price also up 8% year-over-year. Partially deviating from the overall market trend of higher year-over-year price per square foot and a lower year-over-year median price, Edgewater reported gains in both values:

• Price per Square Foot increased by 16.6%, up from $744 in Q3 2021 to $867 in Q2 this year. (Fig. 6)
• With a 16.6% year-over-year gain, luxury condos in Edgewater offered maximum value to sellers out of all the Greater Downtown Miami neighborhoods under review.
• With a Price per Square Foot of $867, Edgewater remained the most expensive neighborhood of Greater Downtown.
• Median Sales Price increased 8%, up from $1,255,000 in Q3 2021 to $1,355,000 in the same quarter of 2022 (Fig. 6) - the highest of all Greater Downtown neighborhoods under review.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2022 - Fig. 8

Q3 2022 - Edgewater Days on Market Up QoQ, But Down YoY

8% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Consistent with the overall Miami luxury condo market trend for Days on Market, Edgewater reported a decline in year-over-year numbers, but increase in quarter-over-quarter values.

In Q3 2022, luxury condos spent 5 fewer days on the market compared to Q3 last year and 3 extra days compared to Q2 2022 (Fig. 9). This shows that even though sales momentum may have dropped, buyers-seller communication improved compared to a year-ago.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2022 – Fig. 9

Q3 2022 - Edgewater Inventory Flat YoY - Highest in Miami Overall

Q3 2022 closed with 12 months of Inventory. Moving against the overall market trend of higher year-over-year inventory, Edgewater reported flat year-over-year and higher quarter-over-quarter values. At 12 months, inventory closed within the 9-12-month mark of a balanced market – indicating a level playing field for buyers and sellers, in the larger scheme of an overall seller-friendly market in Miami.

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory was up 50% from 8 months in June 2022.
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory was flat at 12 months between September 2021 and 2022.
  
  

Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2022 - Fig. 10

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Brickell Market Trends (33129, 33130 and 33131)

Q3 2022 - Brickell Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY – Most Resilient Market in Miami Overall

Q3 Sales down -21.7% year-over-year – Negative trendline. Historically leading the overall luxury condo market in Miami in terms of sales progression, Brickell reported the least negative impact on year-over-year sales volume of all Miami neighborhoods under our review in Q3 2022:

• Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021. Sales declined 21.7% year-over-year, down from 92 in Q3 last year to 72 sales in Q3 2022. (Fig. 11)
• Negative year-over-year sales trend in sync with the slowdown noted in Miami overall.
• Third-quarter volume at highest compared to the same quarter of 2020 and before (Fig. 12.1) – indicating the market may have lost steam seasonally but kept to its momentum gathered over the past two years.
• Brickell again reported the highest sales volume out of all Greater Downtown Miami neighborhoods under review.

Expectedly, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 12.2 dipped into a negative trajectory for the first time in 7 quarters.

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2022 - Fig. 12.1

Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

Q3 2022 - Brickell Price per Square Foot Up YoY 

Q3 Price per Square Foot up 8.6% at previous peak of $830, Median Price down -2.1% year-over-year. Price trends in Brickell followed the overall market trend of higher year-over-year price per square foot and a lower median price:

• Price per Square Foot increased by 8.6%, up from $764 in Q3 2021 to previous peak of $830 in Q3 this year. (Fig. 11)
• With Price per Square Foot adjusting only by a dollar quarter-over-quarter, values hovered at $830 - a peak attained in the previous quarter - indicating sellers continued receiving the best value-to-date for their luxury condos in this financial district. (Fig. 13)
• Median Sales Price declined by -2.1%, down from $1,361,485 in Q3 2021 to $1,332,500 in Q3 this year. (Fig. 11)
• This inconsistency in year-over-year Price per Square Foot and Sales Price trends could likely be explained by sales of smaller-sized condos ruling the quarter. Amenity-rich, smaller condos tend to fetch a higher price per square foot.
  
  

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2022 - Fig. 13

Q3 2022 - Brickell Days on Market Up QoQ, But Down YoY – Fastest-selling Market in Greater Downtown

37% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. In sync with the overall Miami luxury condo market trend for Days on Market, Brickell also reported a decline in year-over-year numbers, but an increase in quarter-over-quarter values.

In Q3 2022, luxury condos spent 29 fewer days on the market compared to Q3 last year and 3 extra days compared to Q2 2022. This shows that even though sales volume may have dipped, closings were swifter compared to a year-ago. (Fig. 14)

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2022 - Fig. 14

Q3 2022 - Brickell Inventory Down YoY to Lowest in Greater Downtown

Q3 2022 closed with 9 months of Inventory. In contrast to the higher year-over-year inventory trend noticed in the overall market, Brickell reported the lowest levels of inventory of all Greater Downtown Miami neighborhoods under review. At 9 months, inventory closed at the lower end of the 9-12-month range of an ideal market, still giving sellers the upper hand in negotiations in this sub-market.

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory was up 28.6% from 7 months in June 2022.
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory was down 11.1% from 10 months in September 2021.

Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 15

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Downtown Miami Market Trends (33128, 33132 and 33136)

Q3 2022 - Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY

Q3 Sales down -46.2% year-over-year - Negative trendline. In line with the negative sales trend seen in the overall market report, Downtown Miami reported a decline in sales volume:

• Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021. Sales declined 46.2% year-over-year, down from 26 in Q3 last year to 14 in this third-quarter of 2022. (Fig. 15)
• Even as quarter-over-quarter sales dropped by 62.2% (Fig. 15.1), Q3 2022 sales registered higher than any third-quarter noted from 2020 or before. (Fig. 16.1)

Even with sales taking a seasonal break, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 16.2 maintained its positive curve from Q1 this year through to Q3 2022 – owing to a record-setting first and second quarter.

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2022 - Fig. 16.1

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 16.2

Q3 2022 - Downtown Miami Prices Down YoY, Most Affordable in Miami Overall

Q3 Price per Square Foot down -5.8% to $704, Median Price also down -17.4% year-over-year. Deviating from the overall market trend of higher year-over-year price per square foot and lower median price, prices in Downtown Miami declined:

• Price per Square Foot decreased by 5.8%, down from $747 in Q3 2021 to $704 in the comparable quarter of 2022. (Fig. 15)
• Looking at the 5-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 17), we found that Downtown prices closed in the higher ranges - giving sellers great value for their luxury condo investments.
• Median Sales Price also declined by 17.4%, down from $1,512,500 in Q3 2021 to $1,250,000 in Q3 this year. (Fig. 15.1)

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2022 - Fig. 17

Q3 2022 - Downtown Miami Days on Market Up QoQ, Down YoY

24% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. In line with the overall Miami luxury condo market trend for Days on Market, Downtown Miami posted a decline in year-over-year days, but increase in quarter-over-quarter values.

In Q3 2022, luxury condos spent 32 fewer days on the market compared to Q3 2021 and 40 extra days compared to Q2 2022 (Fig. 18). This shows that even though sales dipped seasonally, buyers-seller communication improved compared to the previous year.

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2022 - Fig. 18

Q3 2022 - Downtown Miami Inventory Up YoY

Q3 2022 closed with 12 months of Inventory. Tightly in step with the overall market trend of higher year-over-year inventory, Downtown Miami reported an increase. At 12 months, inventory closed within the 9-12-month mark of a balanced market – indicating this sub-market offered buyers and sellers equal opportunity, in an otherwise seller-dominated market.

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory went up 50% from 8 months in June 2022.
• On a year-over-year basis too, inventory increased by 20% from 10 months in September 2021.
  
  

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2022 - Fig. 19

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Q3 2022 Greater Downtown Miami Market Conclusion

As predicted in our Q2 2022 luxury condo market report for Greater Downtown Miami, this urban core took a seasonal break from posting record sales since Q4 2020. Sales cooled off across the board with a negative trendline, much like the overall Miami market trend – except in Downtown Miami, which posted a positive trendline owing to a record-breaking Q1 and Q2 in 2022.

Brickell emerged as the most popular neighborhood in the Greater Downtown area, reporting the highest volume (72 sales) of all 3 sub-markets and lowest percentage loss in year-over-year sales (-22%). Brickell also emerged as the strongest sub-market in Miami overall, with its least negative impact on year-over-year sales growth.

Deviating slightly from the overall market trend in Q3 2022 of higher Price per Square Foot and lower year-over-year Sales Price, prices mostly increased in Greater Downtown Miami. Sellers in Edgewater continued receiving maximum value for their investments, as luxury condos in the area fetched top-dollar - closing Q3 at a price of $867/square foot as well as the highest year-over-year price gains by reporting a 17% increase.

Echoing the overall market trend, the Days on Market declined year-over-year for luxury condos across Greater Downtown. Brickell remained the fastest-selling market, with properties spending only 50 days on the market (on median) before closing as sold.

Again, slightly deviating from the overall Miami market trend of higher year-over-year inventory, the trend remained flat in Greater Downtown. At 10 months, this core grouping leaned towards becoming a balanced market, as opposed to the seller-friendly trend noted in the overall Miami market.

Considering the last quarter of the year is also slow-paced (as per historical data), we, as luxury real estate experts, expect to see the market cool-off further before picking up pace after mid-January. Additionally, we expect the following to influence the direction of the luxury condos market in Miami during the closing quarter of 2022:

• Recent business migration trends coupled with South Florida's tax-saving policies will likely continue attracting high-net-worth buyers and well-paid employees.
• Higher interest rates might discourage only a few sellers who may have locked in lower mortgage rates or refinanced at a more lucrative rate, considering the luxury condo market usually operates on cash.
• With travel picking up, we expect South American and other foreign buyers to offset any setbacks in demand from a weakening Euro, considering our foreign buyer statistics are dominated by Latin American (39%) and Canadian (25%) clientele.
• With brands like Edition, NoMad, The Standard, and Diesel building luxury condos in the urban core with more short-term rental flexibility and a shorter commute to work, we expect Greater Downtown to stay in the spotlight for buyers and investors alike.
• As mentioned in previous reports, even as developers continue buying out older condo buildings to build fresh luxury, we expect the market to operate with low levels of inventory until such product is built (2-3 years) – keeping the market seller-friendly or balanced at max. for the next few cycles.
  
  

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