Miami Luxury Condo Market Report Q2 2022: Stable Summer, Sellers Still in Control

With Miami's luxury condo market in overdrive for more than a year, it was inevitable for sales to take a break at some point. With Q2 2022 numbers coming in, we saw exactly that, as the market took a breather from reporting record numbers for sales. Still, the market held onto a very healthy pace as domestic and international buyer demand continued keeping inventory levels to a bare minimum.=

Overall, in Q2 2022, sales stayed flat quarter-over-quarter and slowed only 7.3% year-over-year. Price per Square Foot increased 3.8% year-over-year – showing sellers received great value for their luxury condos in Miami. The Days on Market declined to a new low of 57 days – indicating that it took less than 2 months for condos to sell after being listed on the market. And, Inventory stayed low at 7 months, giving sellers a tight grip on the market.

Downtown Miami emerged as the hottest luxury condo market in Miami with the highest percentage sales growth – overtaking Brickell and Edgewater. Fisher Island, as usual, maintained its status as the most expensive neighborhood in Miami, while Downtown Miami continued as the best entry point for buyers into luxury condos affording the lowest price per square foot of all neighborhoods under review in Q2 2022.

However, for answers to pressing questions like "Is the Miami luxury housing market following the national market slowdown?" or "Are we headed for a correction," we'll be keeping a close watch on Q3 and Q4 numbers as they roll out. For now, the luxury condo market in Miami seems to be be sailing happily through summer.

Read on for a detailed analysis of the quarterly data on how sales, prices, days on market, and inventory responded to buyer demand and more below.

This luxury condo market report only includes data for properties priced $1 million and above, and covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (including Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown), Miami Beach (inclusive of South Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach, and Fisher Island), as well as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Q2 2022 - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

• Sales only 7.3% below last year's Q2 record numbers (729 in Q2-2022 vs 776 in Q2-2021), driven by a slowdown in the Miami Beaches
• Downtown Miami emerges as Miami's most popular neighborhood, leading sales growth with a 64% year-over-year increase in Q2
• Overall Prices report mixed trends year-over-year – Price per Sq. Ft. up 3.8% but Median Sales Price down -9.4%
• Fisher Island was the most expensive neighborhood of Q2 2022 with a median price of $1,782/sq. ft. – maintains top spot for 6 quarters in a row
• Surfside & Bal Harbour's luxury condos offered maximum value to sellers with highest percentage growth (40%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft.
• Condo buildings built before 2000 reported the highest year-over-year sales growth, while buildings dated 2000-2014 again posted the highest sales volume of all
• Sellers consistently received a maximum return on investment (ROI) for condos built before 2000
• Days on Market down -40.6% year-over-year
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables emerges as Miami's fastest-selling market, with only 17 days on market
• Inventory down 22.2% year-over-year to 7 months
• Fisher Island posted the lowest inventory (4 months) of all Miami neighborhoods, closely followed by South Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour plus Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (5 months each)

Table of Contents

1. Q2 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Q2 2022 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales
3. Q2 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
4. Q2 2022 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
5. Q2 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Price Trends by Building Year
6. Q2 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
7. Q2 2022 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Q2 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
9. Q2 2022 Miami Luxury Condo Market Conclusion
10. Where does the Miami Luxury Condo Market go from Here?

Q2 2022 Miami Overall Luxury Condo Sales Stable

Q2 Sales down 7.3% year-over-year – 12-month sales trendline positive 

After months of posting record numbers, Miami's luxury condo market took an expected break this summer, but this dip was due in large part to a slow down seen in Miami Beach neighborhoods, and not in mainland Miami. Reporting only a slight dip in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter numbers, the market kept a healthy pace through Q2 2022 (Fig. 1.2):

Quarterly Sales Comparison - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Q2 2022 vs Q1 2022. Sales kept flat, adjusting only -1.4%, down from 729 in Q1 to 719 in Q2 this year (Fig. 1).
• Q2 2022 vs Q2 2021. Sales dipped 7.3% to 719, down from 776 in the previous year (Fig. 1.1).
• Sales volume stayed in the 700+ range – still higher than any single quarter recorded from 2015 to 2020 (Fig. 1.2).

Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2022 - Fig. 1.2

Looking at Monthly Sales (Fig. 1.3), volumes declined towards the tail-end of the quarter, causing Q2-2022 to close slightly lower than the previous year's record-setting high:

• April 2022 closed with 264 sales versus previous year's 271 sales (in April). 
• May closed with 271 sales compared to 257 in the same month of 2021.
• June closed with 184, down from the previous year's 248 sales in June.

Even with sales closing a little lower compared to the previous quarter and year, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 1.4 shifted back into a positive trajectory this Q2 2022 – picking up from a negative curve in Q1 2022. The consistent sales growth seen in the mainland neighborhoods – namely Greater Downtown Miami and the combined neighborhoods of Coconut Grove plus Coral Gables – helped keep momentum in this second-quarter. (See neighborhood reports for more details). 

Considering the third quarter of the year is generally one of the slowest (based on historical data), we expect sales to cool off a bit more in the upcoming quarter. 

Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to Jun. 2022 - Fig. 1.3

Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4

Q2 2022 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales

Q2 2022 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Sales Trends (Fig. 1.5)

• Winner: Downtown Miami reported the highest percentage (64%) growth in year-over-year sales.
• Up: These mainland Miami neighborhoods posted increases in year-over-year sales:
• Edgewater (34%)
• Brickell (34%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (17%)

• Down: These Miami Beach and coastal neighborhoods reported a decline in year-over-year sales:
• Sunny Isles Beach (-5%)
• Mid/North Beach (-27%)
• South Beach (-28%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour (-29%)
• Fisher Island (-70%)

More in-depth analysis and details are available in dedicated reports for Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach and the Barrier Islands, plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 2Q22-over-2Q21 - Fig. 1.5

Q2 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Prices - Positive Trends YoY 

Q2 2022 Price per Square Foot up 3.8% to $931, but Median Price down -9.4% year-over-year.

As the Price per Square increased year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter values stayed flat, sellers across Miami continued receiving a premium for their luxury condos:

Q2 2022 Median Price Trends – Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Q2 2022 vs Q2 2021. Price per Square Foot increased 3.8% year-over-year, up from $897 in Q2 2021 to $931 for the same quarter 2022 (Fig. 1.1 & 2.1).
• Q2 2022 vs Q2 2021. Median Sales Price decreased -9.4% year-over-year, down from $1,805,000 last year to $1,635,000 in Q2 this year.
• This inconsistency between year-over-year Price per Square Foot and Sales Price trends could be due to sales of smaller (in size) condos dominating the quarter. Smaller condos with better amenity packages tend to command a higher price per square foot.
• Q2 2022 vs Q1 2021. Price per Square Foot softened down by -1.7% from a peak of $947 in Q1 2022, keeping mostly flat at $931 in Q2 this year (Fig. 1 & 2.1).

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017- 2022 - Fig. 2.1

Q2 2022 Miami Neighborhood Price Trends

Q2 2022 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Price Trends

Every neighborhood either reported an increase in price per square foot or remained essentially flat in year-over-year comparisons. 

Median Price per Square Foot (Fig. 2.2)

• Winner: Fisher Island held onto its position as the most expensive neighborhood for a 6th consecutive quarter, fetching a median price of $1,782/sq. ft.
• Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour reported the highest percentage growth (40%) in year-over-year Price per Square Foot ($1,724), replacing Fisher Island from the top-spot in the previous quarter.
• Up: Other neighborhoods posting an increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot: 
• Edgewater - $883/SF (21%)
• Downtown Miami - $743/SF (18%)
• Brickell - $830/SF (13%)
• Mid/North Beach - $1,079/SF (12%)
• Sunny Isles Beach - $898/SF (10%)
• Fisher Island - $1,782/SF (8%)
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables - $725/SF (4%)
• Flat: South Beach posted a negligible change (-1%) in year-over-year Price per Square Foot.

Miami Neighborhood 2Q22-over-2Q21 Median Price per Square Foot. Comparison - Fig. 2.2

Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.3)

• Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour (combined) reported the highest percentage growth (21%) in year-over-year Median Sales Price, closing at $3.3 million.
• Winner: Fisher Island continued posting the highest Median Sales Price for a 7th straight quarter at $6 million – keeping its place as the most premium zip code in Miami.
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year Median Sales Price:
• Mid-North Beach - $1.7 million (10%)
• Edgewater - $1.5 million (7%)
• Downtown Miami - $1.5 million (7%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables - $1.6 million (3%)
• Flat: Fisher Island (-2%) posted a negligible change in its year-over-year Median Sales Price.
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year Median Sales Price:
• Sunny Isles Beach - $1.8 million (-8%)
• Brickell - $1.3 million (-15%)
• South Beach - $1.7 million (-27%)

Miami Neighborhood 2Q22-over-2Q21 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3

Q2 2022 Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year - Mixed

Below is a detailed analysis of how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q2 2022 on the basis of age of construction of the condo building, categorized as new construction buildings (2015-2021), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 buildings.

• Winner: Buildings Dated 2000-2014 again posted the highest sales volume (291) of all 3 segments under review, along with increasing to a new peak price value of $918/SF.
• Condos Built before 2000 reported 5.7% year-over-year growth, as volumes peaked to their highest in years. Also, sellers continued receiving the best value of all 3 segments with a 16% increase in year-over-year prices - possibly due to developers opting for bulk buyouts.
• New Construction Buildings (2015 to now) reported flat sales overall. Year-over-year price value declined 10.7%.

Miami New Construction Condos Built 2015-2022

As expected, Miami's freshly-built luxury condos continued attracting buyers. With 256 sales, the segment posted absolutely flat quarter-over-quarter sales and only a marginal drop (-1.5%) in year-over-year sales (Fig. 3.1).

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2022 - Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2 shows this newly-built segment closed the quarter with a $1,031 price per square foot, giving sellers decent value, even as prices declined quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. The Price per Square Foot for the segment was down 3.5% quarter-over-quarter and 10.7% lower year-over-year.

Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot (Buildings Built 2015-2022) - Fig. 3.2

Note: Anecdotally, we are seeing exceptionally high demand for pre-construction luxury condos. These pre-construction sales are not recording in centralized databases, and thus are not included in our quarterly sales data and reports. 

To see current Miami Pre-Construction Projects in development, see our Miami Condo Development Guide. Or search for listed pre-construction condo homes here.

Miami Luxury Condos Built 2000-2014

Maintaining the highest sales volume of all 3 segments under review, buildings built 2000-2014 were the most popular among buyers for Q2 2022. However, with 291 sales, the segment posted a 13.6% decline in quarter-over-quarter sales as well as an 18.7% dip in year-over-year numbers (Fig. 3.3).

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3

Fig. 3.4 shows this segment (built 2000-2014) again closed the quarter with a new peak price of $918/sq. ft., giving sellers the best value for their properties to date. The Price per Square Foot for the segment was mostly flat (0.2%) quarter-over-quarter, but 7% higher year-over-year.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4 

Miami Luxury Condos Built Before 2000

Older luxury condo buildings in Miami (built pre-2000) posted their highest recorded volume yet. With 167 sales, this classic segment posted a 23.7% growth in quarter-over-quarter numbers and a 5.7% increase in year-over-year volume (Fig. 3.5). This sudden spike in demand could be as more and more developers are turning to bulk buy-out deals for older buildings, looking to replace them with new, more luxurious condo product.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5

Closing the quarter at a price of $833 per square foot, prices were down 9.5% quarter-over-quarter, but 16% higher year-over-year. With this year-over-year increase, this classic segment afforded sellers the best value of all 3 segments under review.

Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft.  (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6

Q2 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condos - Days on Market Down YoY to Lowest-ever

Days on Market down 31.3% quarter-over-quarter. In Q2 2022, luxury condos spent 26 fewer days on market compared to Q1 this year (Fig. 4.1). At 57 days, values dropped to their lowest-ever, showing that buyer-seller expectations were in sync, making listing to closing a swift deal.

On a year-over-year basis, luxury condos spent 39 fewer days on market (DOM) compared to Q2 2021 – a 40.6% decline in keeping with the positive pace of the market.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2022 - Fig. 4.1

Q2 2022 Miami Neighborhood Days on Market Trends

Q2 2022 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Days on Market Trends (Fig. 4.2)

• Winner: Luxury condos in the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove & Coral Gables spent only 17 days on the market - a decline of 62 days year-over-year (-78%) - making this the fastest-selling neighborhood of Q2 2022.
• Down: Other neighborhoods posting a decline in their Median Days on Market for luxury condos in Miami:
• Fisher Island - 42 days (-65%)
• Edgewater - 64 days (-60%)
• Brickell - 48 days (-53%)
• Sunny Isles Beach - 77 days (-30%)
• South Beach - 58 days (-28%)
• Mid/North Beach - 74 days (-26%)
• Up: Downtown Miami (37%) plus Surfside and Bal Harbour (28%) reported an increase in year-over-year Days on Market for luxury condos.

Miami Neighborhood 2Q22-Over-2Q21 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2

Luxury Condo Inventory Down to 7 months – Seller's Market Holds

Q2 2022 closed with 7 months of inventory. With buyer demand staying stable for most of the second quarter and declining only towards the tail-end, luxury condo inventory kept to a minimum in Miami:

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory stayed flat at 7 months between March and June this year.
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory was down from 9 months in June 2021 – reporting a 22.2% decline (Fig. 5.1).

Considering a balanced market should ideally hold 9-12 months of inventory, at 7 months, Miami's luxury condo market continues favoring sellers. This means sellers have the upper hand in negotiations, as most properties are selling at a premium with multiple offers (often in cash).

As luxury condo experts, we recommend buyers to put in very strong offers (preferably above asking price) if they would like to secure the luxury home of their choice. For sellers looking to turn a profit, we recommend acting soon as the market is expected to remain seller-friendly with low levels of inventory for a few more months, but with some correction to a balanced market soon. 

Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Jun. 2022 - Fig. 5.1

A balanced market has about 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Overall Luxury Condo Market - Q2 2022 Conclusion

Seller's market maintains control with very low inventory even as sales dip marginally.

Considering Miami's luxury condo market had been in overdrive for over a year, reporting new sales highs with each quarter, it was inevitable that the market would cool off at some point. After reporting continuous growth since Q3 2020, the market finally decided to pace itself this summer. So, even as Q2 2022 reported a high level of sales (700+), it fell 7.3% short of touching the record-high reported in the same quarter last year. However, this drop was mainly due to a slump in Miami Beach neighborhoods, and not on mainland Miami.

Bucking the trend this second-quarter, Downtown Miami emerged as the most popular neighborhood for luxury condo buyers. By reporting a year-over-year sales growth of 64%, Downtown overtook Edgewater and Brickell in terms of popularity – pushing them to the second spot with a growth of 34% each. All Miami Beach neighborhoods reported negative year-over-year sales growth in Q2 2022.

Even with the Miami Beach neighborhoods continuing to report a slowdown for a second quarter, the mainland neighborhoods carried momentum for the overall market. The 12-month sales trendline for overall Miami returned to a positive trajectory, after posting a negative curve in Q1 2022. However, considering the third quarter is generally the slowest, we expect sales to further cool off over the next quarter.

On the price front, sellers across Miami received a premium on their property values. Of all the Miami neighborhoods under review, luxury condos in Surfside and Bal Harbour offered the highest year-over-year increase in value (40%). Buildings built 2000-2014 continued to be the popular choice among buyers, posting the highest sales volume of all 3 segments under review (newly-built to classic). And again, the older luxury condo buildings of Miami (built before 2000) offered the highest value to sellers with a 16% increase in year-over-year prices.

The Days on Market metric continued following a downward trend, dropping to its lowest level-ever at 57 days. Steadily declining across Miami, this all-time low aptly reflected the consistency between buyer-seller expectations. Luxury condos in Coconut Grove & Coral Gables were the quickest to sell, reporting only 17 days to market (on median) in Q2 2022.

As domestic as well as international buyer demand remained high, inventory stayed below the 9–12-month benchmark of a balanced market. Closing with only 7 months of inventory, sellers stayed in control of the market, enjoying multiple offers on their units. Buyers, on the other hand, will still have to put in highly competitive offers (over asking price) to lock in the luxury condo they desire.

For buyers looking to see the kind of inventory available on the market, you can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami here or contact us directly.

Miami's Luxury Condo Market Prediction 2022: Where Does the Market Go From Here?

With 2022 off to a flying start in Q1, the second-quarter didn't disappoint either. However, with sales cooling off by the tail-end of the quarter, particularly in June, and the third-quarter generally being the slowest (as per historical data), we expect the market to continue its summer break. We further expect summer months to be slower than the previous couple of years due to people going back to their normal vacation/life patterns post-pandemic.

Still, as luxury condo experts, we expect the Miami market to hold to a certain threshold of growth that it has gained over the past year or so. Moving forward into the second half of 2022, we expect the following factors to continue influencing Miami's luxury condo market performance and direction:

Weakening Euro versus safe investment haven. While a weakening Euro may lead to slower buyer demand from Europeans, we don't expect it to leave a huge impact on the overall luxury condo market in Miami. According to this latest research by Miami Realtors, "Florida remains the No. 1 U.S. destination for international buyers, with an even higher foreign buyer share of 24% than the previous year." Additionally, Latin America (39%) and Canada (25%) make up the largest share of international buyers in Florida, as the U.S. offers a safer, better appreciating asset base for investors, while those from Europe make only 12% of our buyer share.

Valuable tax savings and continued business migration. As Miami has turned into the biggest magnet for startups to established businesses from across the nation, we expect more domestic migrants to land on our sunny shores. With San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York City continuing to be the three largest outflow markets, with Chicago also making moves, and Florida being on the receiving end, as real estate experts, we expect the domestic demand for luxury housing to continue trending into 2022.

Rising interest rates: The one metric that we will be watching closely is the increase in interest rates and discussion of a potential recession. While the Miami luxury condo market is very strong and seeing a lot of cash offers that wouldn't likely be affected by increased interest rates, there could be some buyer hesitation. There could be some that choose to wait on the sidelines to buy, or look to pre-construction projects if they are able to wait longer. While we will be watching this closely, we don't expect an appreciable effect on the overall strength of the current market.

Work-from-home flexibility. Miami is known to offer the complete package of an energetic global city and relaxing beachside destination rolled into one. This, along with a wider acceptability of work-from-home policies, leads us to expect that buyer demand will likely stay strong from those who aspire to build a life close to the beach, water in general, lush tropical expanses, or art and culture hotspots.

Miami's branded luxury. With each quarter, Miami continues to be the destination of choice for the biggest to quirkiest brand names in the luxury business to build world-class condo product. Those familiar with and looking to live the Aston Martin experience, or St. Regis, Cipriani, Missoni, Bentley, Diesel, or NoMad experience will continue to be drawn to our city in great numbers as their range of choices keeps on expanding.

Keeping low levels of inventory. It's no secret that Miami's pre-construction market is in overdrive with developers announcing new projects by the droves and picking up older condo buildings in bulk buyout deals to make way for new, more luxurious housing. However, even with this accelerated pace, it will take a while for this new condo inventory to be delivered. With sales staying strong and fewer deliveries in the immediate future (read next 2-3 years), we expect inventory levels to stay low, keeping the market largely seller-friendly for the next couple of cycles at least.

If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.

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