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by , January 21, 2021
The numbers are in for the busiest quarter for luxury condos in over 6 years! Closing the year on an extraordinary note, Q4 2020 Miami Luxury Condo Sales skyrocketed, reclaiming all the lost sales we saw from mid-year 2020 due to the coronavirus (read here about Q2 2020) and then some. And, as sellers offered discounted prices, buyers purchased the Miami luxury condo inventory at record numbers, bringing inventory levels lower to those before 2019. As a result, the days on market also dropped for most neighborhoods over the fourth quarter and on an annual basis.
With market dynamics changing drastically over the last quarter, we expect Miami's luxury condo market to move out of its long-standing buyer-friendly position and move into a more balanced climate over 2021. And, annual numbers are in support as well. Read on for an in-depth breakdown of the annual and Q4 2020 luxury condo market trends based on data on sales, prices, days on market and inventory in our full-length Q4 2020 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report below:
This luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above, and covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (inclusive of Edgewater and Brickell), Miami Beach (inclusive of Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach and Fisher Island) as well as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.
Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - 2020 |
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Annual sales down 2.2% YoY -- luxury condo market makes huge recovery |
Overall luxury condo price/sq. ft. flat (+1.8%) YoY |
Inventory dips to below 2019 levels |
Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - 4Q 2020 |
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Quarterly sales up 36.6% YoY |
Overall luxury condo price/sq. ft. marginally down by -2.6% YoY |
Inventory levels drop to 33 months |
Q4 2020 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1.1
Q4 2020 Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary |
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Quarters |
Number of Sales |
% Change in Sales |
Median Sale Price |
% Change Median Sale Price |
Median Sp/Sqft |
% Change Median Sp/Sqft |
Median DOM |
Q4-2020 |
250 |
36.6% |
$1,487,500 |
-7.0% |
$747 |
-2.6% |
115 |
Q4-2019 |
183 |
$1,600,000 |
$766 |
126 |
2020 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 1.1.1
2020 Miami Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary |
|||||||
Year |
Number of Sales |
% Change in Sales |
Median Sale Price |
% Change Median Sale Price |
Median Sp/Sqft |
% Change Median Sp/Sqft |
Median DOM |
2020 |
702 |
-2.2% |
$1,635,000 |
-0.1% |
$769 |
1.8% |
127 |
2019 |
718 |
$1,636,500 |
$756 |
137 |
Even as the pandemic slowed down global markets in 2020, Miami's luxury condo market bounced back with a huge recovery by year end. On the heels of a strong Q3, the fourth-quarter results are off the charts, making up for significant lost momentum from Q2 2020 (fig. 1.2).
The key point for 2020 was that even with a major unknown of a pandemic, the Miami luxury condo market recovered to post only a 2.2% drop year-over-year annual sales compared to 2019 (fig. 1.1.1). This is unprecedented, and 2020 closed with the highest total sales in a year since 2016. This is quite an achievement considering the global health crisis and the impact it has had on most industries and regions worldwide. A look at the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 1.4 further shows the impact of this boost, as the trend goes from flat in the previous quarter to a soaring positive this Q4.
With a record-breaking 250 closed transactions, Q4 2020 reports the highest quarterly sales in over six years for the Miami luxury condo market. A look at the monthly sales chart of Fig. 1.3 shows how numbers skyrocketed towards the tail-end of the year. While October closed with 76 sales, November reported a total of 78, and December closed the year with an astounding 96 sales.
Historically, the last quarter of the year is known to be the slowest in terms of sales. However, with big businesses and power players moving to Miami, plus the flexibility to work from anywhere, the South Florida real estate market has been witnessing an unprecedented surge in demand. We strongly expect this trend to continue into the first quarter of 2021, at the very least, indicating that Miami's luxury condo market has much to look forward to in the new year.
Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 1.2
Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 1.3
Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4
More details available, including quarterly data, in the dedicated reports for Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach and the Barrier Islands, plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.
Annual Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 2020-over-2019 - Fig. 1.5
Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 4Q20-over-4Q19 - Fig. 1.6
On an annual basis, both the median sales price and price per square foot stayed flat annually (fig. 1.1.1), with only marginal differences to report 2020-over-2019. The price per square foot shifted only slightly from $756 in 2019 to $769 in 2020. The median price also stayed closer to 2019's $1,636,500 at $1,635,000 in 2020.
The fourth quarter of 2020 closed with a 2.6% drop in Median Price per Square Feet, breaking the trend of higher year-over-year price per square feet from Q1 to Q3 (see fig. 2.1). Year-over-year, the price per square foot for luxury condos in Miami decreased to $747 this year from $766 in Q4 last year.
The Median Sales Price also decreased 7% to $1,487,500 in Q4 this year from $1,600,000 in Q4 last year (see fig. 1.1).
Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 2.1
Median Price per Sq. Ft. (Fig. 2.2)
Miami Neighborhood 2020-over-2019 Median Price per Sq. Ft. Comparison - Fig. 2.2
Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.3)
Miami Neighborhood 2020-over-2019 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3
Q4 2020 Median Price per Sq. Ft. (Fig. 2.4)
Miami Neighborhood 4Q20-over-4Q19 Median Price per Sq. Ft. Comparison - Fig. 2.4
Q4 2020 Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.5)
Miami Neighborhood 4Q20-over-4Q19 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.5
Below is a detailed analysis of how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q4 2020 on the basis of age of construction, categorized as new construction buildings (2015-2020), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 buildings.
Making higher peaks almost every other quarter, sales in this newly built section soared to 67 in Q4 2020, tripling those in Q2 2020. The segment reported a 42% increase in year-over-year sales and 26% increase over its previous quarter (Fig. 3.1).
Looking at Fig. 3.2 reveals the Price per Square Foot on this newly built segment stayed flat from Q2 to Q4. Closing the year at $937/sq. ft., luxury condo buyers got to enjoy the benefit of competitive pricing over the last three quarters. Price per Sq. Ft. in the segment was down 17% year-over-year (Fig. 2.4).
Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2020 - Fig. 3.1
Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Prices per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Built 2015-2020) - Fig. 3.2
Again, sales for condos built 2000-2014 reported a great boost in Q4, increasing to 2.5 times levels in Q2 2020. The segment reported a 24% increase in year-over-year sales and 36% increase over the previous quarter (Fig. 3.3).
Looking at fig. 3.4 below reveals the Price per Sq. Ft. for the segment declined slightly year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Closing the year at $727/sq. ft., the Price per Sq. Ft. was down 3% from Q3 2020, as well as same quarter last year (Fig. 3.4).
Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3
Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4
For Miami's older luxury buildings, Q4 sales doubled compared to Q2 2020. Also posting the highest sales in a fourth-quarter since 2015, this classic segment reported a 36% increase in quarter-over-quarter and a 62% increase in its year-over-year sales (Fig. 3.5).
Looking at fig. 3.6 reveals that the Price per Sq. Ft. on this mature segment stayed flat quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, closing the year at $633 per square foot.
Quarterly Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5
Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6
With luxury condo sales soaring over Q3 and Q4, the number of days on market declined drastically quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, as well as on a 2019-2020 annual basis.
Overall, luxury condos in Miami spent 10 fewer days on the market in 2020 compared to 2019 (Fig. 1.1.1). On a quarter-over-quarter basis, they spent 43 fewer days on market in Q4 compared to Q3 2020 (Fig. 4.1). Additionally, luxury condos spent 11 fewer days on market in Q4 2020 compared to the same quarter last year.
All of these trends collectively indicate that buyer demand is increasing, and at the same time, buyer-seller communication improved drastically over the course of the year, along with added sales momentum, to bring the days on market down for luxury condos in Miami.
Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2020 - Fig. 4.1
Miami Neighborhood 2020-over-2019 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2
Miami Neighborhood 4Q20-Over-4Q19 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.3
With sales making record progress and prices staying flat year-over-year, it is exciting to see how a good chunk of inventory was reduced by the end of December, even with the pandemic stalling momentum mid-year. At 33 months, inventory dropped 32% quarter-over-quarter and 25% year-over-year (see fig. 5.1)
As the months of inventory inch closer towards their ideal benchmark of 9-12 months, we expect the luxury condo market to tip over from its buyer-friendly situation to a balanced condition soon. We also expect buyers to seize opportunities presented by flat year-over-year prices, keeping this sales momentum going into the first quarter of 2021 at least.
Search for luxury condos for sale in Miami here.
Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 5.1
A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.
The luxury condo market in Miami ended 2020 with a bang. As overall sales posted an extraordinary recovery in the last quarter, not only did the market pull out of the pandemic-caused slowdown, but also registered one of the strongest fourth-quarters we've seen in over 6 years of our reporting.
With almost all of the neighborhoods in our analysis reporting positive year-end sales (Mid/North Beach being the only exception), the total annual sales of 2020 caught up to those in 2019, posting just a -2.2% drop, which is remarkable. Further, total sales in 2020 outperformed those from 2016 to 2018, making this an exceptional year for the luxury condo market in Miami.
The progression of the 12-Month Sales Trendline perfectly captured this growth over the course of 2020, as it corrected from a negative curve in Q1 and Q2 to a flat in Q3 and ultimately, soaring positive in Q4.
As a response to this incredible momentum, the Months of Inventory and Days on Market also dropped significantly in Q4 on a 2020-over-2019 annual basis. Condo inventory is also correcting, dropping to almost half by year-end (33 months) from its peak of 57 months in June.
On the price front, both the Median Sales Price and Price per Square Foot declined over the fourth quarter. This provided some buyers the added motivation they needed to buy their perfect Miami condo. On an annual basis, both the Median Price per Square Foot and Sales Price were flat, showing that sellers did not lose value, regardless of the pandemic. Luxury condos in the combined neighborhood of Surfside & Bal Harbour plus Edgewater posted maximum gains in Condo BlackBook's 2020-over-2019 annual analysis.
We expect to see sales momentum continue into the first quarter of 2021 (for all the reasons listed below). This momentum coupled with historical data that the second quarter of the year is usually the best, we expect Miami's luxury condo market to shift into a neutral climate from its ongoing buyer-friendly cycle in the first half of 2021. It could also be possible to see some pockets, such as Fisher Island, Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (with the lowest inventory of 15 months), to transition into a seller's market in the near quarters. This is important for both buyers and sellers to note.
With properties still offered at flat-to-competitive pricing, we highly recommend buyers to take advantage of this likely impending market shift, ending the long-running favorable buyer's market cycle. You can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami here.
2020 was undoubtedly a year full of firsts and uncertainties. As the year progressed, so did Miami's luxury condo market. The year-end numbers went soaring, annual numbers stabilized, and the market seems to have made a full recovery. So, where does the Miami luxury condo market in Miami go from here as we enter 2021?
We expect the following factors to influence the luxury condo market's performance over the next two quarters:
An Avalanche of Sales. Miami has long been an attractive haven for buyers from high-tax states as well as those up north with chilling winters such as New York. Warm, sunny winters, balmy beaches, and a favorable tax environment, including corporate tax incentives, continues to attract domestic buyers. We are seeing a strong uptick in buyers from the Northeast as well as California.
Additionally, with the pandemic changing work policies for most, people now have the flexibility to work from anywhere. A home office by the ocean set in Miami's diverse cultural scene and with multitudes of luxury condo options to choose are key selling points. (Watch and read more on this here with our featured story from The Next Miami.)
Miami - the Next Power City? As 2020 made most of us reconsider major life decisions, corporations to power players are re-evaluating their circumstances as well. Again, Florida's no income tax policy along with ready access to the South American market and great quality of life saw the likes of Icahn Enterprises to Payless Shoes as well as David Blumberg to David and Victoria Beckham set up shop/home in Miami. We expect this influx of established big business, tech and finance corps to continue to populate South Florida, further increasing interest in this luxury segment of the real estate market. Read more about who's moving to Miami here.
Elections are Over. Now that the Presidential elections are behind us, we expect a lot of buyers who may have been sitting on the fence for months due to market questions will feel confident about taking the next step to either move to South Florida or complete the purchase of a new property here.
Inventory Decreases Continue with Signs of Market Corrections. With fewer pre-construction deliveries expected in the near future, sales continuing at current or an increased pace, and a decreased availability of luxury single-family homes, we expect inventory to continue to decrease over the first two quarters of 2021. This will set the Miami luxury condo market up to shift to a neutral, or possibly even to a seller's market in some pockets such as Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (which has the lowest months of inventory at 15), within the first half of the year.
If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.
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