Miami Luxury Condo Market Report Q4 2020: Sales Skyrocketed

The numbers are in for the busiest quarter for luxury condos in over 6 years! Closing the year on an extraordinary note, Q4 2020 Miami Luxury Condo Sales skyrocketed, reclaiming all the lost sales we saw from mid-year 2020 due to the coronavirus (read here about Q2 2020) and then some. And, as sellers offered discounted prices, buyers purchased the Miami luxury condo inventory at record numbers, bringing inventory levels lower to those before 2019. As a result, the days on market also dropped for most neighborhoods over the fourth quarter and on an annual basis.

With market dynamics changing drastically over the last quarter, we expect Miami's luxury condo market to move out of its long-standing buyer-friendly position and move into a more balanced climate over 2021. And, annual numbers are in support as well. Read on for an in-depth breakdown of the annual and Q4 2020 luxury condo market trends based on data on sales, prices, days on market and inventory in our full-length Q4 2020 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report below:

This luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above, and covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (inclusive of Edgewater and Brickell), Miami Beach (inclusive of Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach and Fisher Island) as well as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights – 2020 (Annual)

• 2020's Total Annual Sales at highest level compared to years 2016-2018
• Combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove and Coral Gables leads annual sales growth in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• Overall Prices stay flat annually
• Fisher Island was the most expensive neighborhood of 2020 with a median price of $1,1054/sq. ft., closely followed by South Beach
• Annual Days on Market decline in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• Fisher Island plus Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (combined) report the lowest year-end inventory (15 months) of all Miami neighborhoods
• Surfside & Bal Harbour plus Edgewater offer maximum value to sellers with highest price per sq. ft. increase in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• Brickell and Greater Downtown Miami post the highest year-end inventory (54 and 51 months) of all Miami neighborhoods
• 2020 posts strong year-end recovery, closes as a buyer-friendly market but situation likely to change to more competitive market soon

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights - 4Q 2020

• Record-breaking 4Q-2020, with highest quarterly sales in over 6 years
• Fisher Island (up 143%) and Sunny Isles Beach (up 141%) most popular neighborhoods, leading Q4 sales growth
• Mid-North Beach is the only neighborhood in Q4 to report a decline in year-over-year sales
• 12-month sales trendline shifts from flat in Q3 2020 to positive in Q4 2020
• Overall Prices Down - Median sales price down 7% and Price/sq. ft. by 2.6% year-over-year
• Fisher Island is the most expensive neighborhood of Q4 2020 with a median price of $1,128/sq. ft., knocking out South Beach from the top spot last quarter
• Buildings in all three segments - built 2015-2020, 2000-2014, and those built before 2000 - reported strong sales growth
• Condo buildings built before 2000 showed maximum price stability
• Days on Market dropped year-over-year
• Exceptional sales volume pushed down inventory to below 2019 levels 

Table of Contents

1. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales
3. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
4. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
5. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Price Trends by Building Year
6. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
7. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
9. Conclusion
10. Where does the Miami Luxury Condo Market go from Here?

Q4 2020 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Increase to Highest Since 2015

Q4 2020 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1.1

2020 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 1.1.1

Annual sales down 2.2% against 2019, but highest since 2016 with positive trendline 

Even as the pandemic slowed down global markets in 2020, Miami's luxury condo market bounced back with a huge recovery by year end. On the heels of a strong Q3, the fourth-quarter results are off the charts, making up for significant lost momentum from Q2 2020 (fig. 1.2).

The key point for 2020 was that even with a major unknown of a pandemic, the Miami luxury condo market recovered to post only a 2.2% drop year-over-year annual sales compared to 2019 (fig. 1.1.1). This is unprecedented, and 2020 closed with the highest total sales in a year since 2016. This is quite an achievement considering the global health crisis and the impact it has had on most industries and regions worldwide. A look at the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 1.4 further shows the impact of this boost, as the trend goes from flat in the previous quarter to a soaring positive this Q4.

Q4 2020 sales skyrocket to highest in a quarter since 2015

With a record-breaking 250 closed transactions, Q4 2020 reports the highest quarterly sales in over six years for the Miami luxury condo market. A look at the monthly sales chart of Fig. 1.3 shows how numbers skyrocketed towards the tail-end of the year. While October closed with 76 sales, November reported a total of 78, and December closed the year with an astounding 96 sales.

Historically, the last quarter of the year is known to be the slowest in terms of sales. However, with big businesses and power players moving to Miami, plus the flexibility to work from anywhere, the South Florida real estate market has been witnessing an unprecedented surge in demand. We strongly expect this trend to continue into the first quarter of 2021, at the very least, indicating that Miami's luxury condo market has much to look forward to in the new year.

Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 1.2

Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 1.3

Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4

Miami Neighborhood Trends - YoY Number of Sales

2020-over-2019 - Annual Sales Trends (Fig. 1.5)

• Winner: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (combined) report the highest percentage growth (22%) compared to 2019
• Up: Edgewater (19%), Fisher Island (19%), and Sunny Isles Beach (18%) -- all report an increase in annual sales
• Flat: Surfside & Bal Harbour (combined) post the same level of total sales as 2019
• Down: Brickell (-28%), South Beach (-21%), Mid/North Beach (-18%), and Greater Downtown Miami (-14%) -- all report a decline in annual sales

Q4-2020 Year-over-Year Sales Trends (Fig. 1.6)

• Winners: Fisher Island reports the highest percentage (143%) growth in year-over-year sales, closely followed by Sunny Isles Beach (141%)
• Up: The combined grouping of Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (65%), Surfside & Bal Harbour (35%), plus South Beach (9%) -- all report an increase in year-over-year sales
• Flat: Edgewater, Brickell and Greater Downtown Miami, essentially most of the urban core, match sales levels from Q4 last year
• Down: The combined neighborhood of Mid-North Beach is the only one to report a decline in year-over-year sales this Q4

More details available, including quarterly data, in the dedicated reports for Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach and the Barrier Islands, plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

Annual Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 2020-over-2019 - Fig. 1.5

Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 4Q20-over-4Q19 - Fig. 1.6

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Prices Flat - Both Annual Sales Price and Price/Sq. Ft.

Annual Price/Sq. Ft. flat at $769, Median Price also flat 

On an annual basis, both the median sales price and price per square foot stayed flat annually (fig. 1.1.1), with only marginal differences to report 2020-over-2019. The price per square foot shifted only slightly from $756 in 2019 to $769 in 2020. The median price also stayed closer to 2019's $1,636,500 at $1,635,000 in 2020.

Q4 2020 Price per Sq. Ft. down 2.6% to $747, Median Price down 7% Year-over-Year 

The fourth quarter of 2020 closed with a 2.6% drop in Median Price per Square Feet, breaking the trend of higher year-over-year price per square feet from Q1 to Q3 (see fig. 2.1). Year-over-year, the price per square foot for luxury condos in Miami decreased to $747 this year from $766 in Q4 last year.

The Median Sales Price also decreased 7% to $1,487,500 in Q4 this year from $1,600,000 in Q4 last year (see fig. 1.1).

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 2.1

4Q 2020 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Price per Square Foot, Sales Price

Annual 2020-over-2019 Neighborhood Price Trends 

Median Price per Sq. Ft. (Fig. 2.2)

• Winners: Fisher Island was the most expensive neighborhood with a median price of $1,1054/sq. ft., closely followed by South Beach at $1,026/sq. ft.
• Winners: Surfside & Bal Harbour (combined) reported the highest percentage growth in annual Price per sq. ft. (15%), closely followed by Edgewater (11%)
• Up: Other neighborhoods posting an increase in annual Price per sq. ft. include Greater Downtown Miami (5%), Sunny Isles Beach (3%), and Brickell (2%)
• Flat: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (combined), Fisher Island, and Mid/North Beach post none to negligible change in 2019-2020 Price per sq. ft.
• Down: South Beach (-11%) is the only neighborhood to report a decline in its annual Price per sq. ft.

Miami Neighborhood 2020-over-2019 Median Price per Sq. Ft. Comparison - Fig. 2.2

Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.3)

• Winner: Fisher Island reports the highest percentage growth in annual Median Sales Price (9%)
• Winner: Fisher Island also reports the highest Median Sales Price for 2020 at $4.6 million
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in annual Median Sales Price – Surfside & Bal Harbour (7%), Greater Downtown Miami (5%), Brickell (5%), and Edgewater (2%)
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in annual Median Sales Price – South Beach (-9%), Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (-7%), Sunny Isles Beach (-7%), and Mid/North Beach (-6%)

Miami Neighborhood 2020-over-2019 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3

Q4 2020 and Quarterly Year-over-Year Neighborhood Price Trends

Q4 2020 Median Price per Sq. Ft. (Fig. 2.4)

• Winner: Fisher Island is the most expensive neighborhood with a median price of $1,128/sq. ft., outperforming the third quarter's most expensive neighborhood of South Beach
• Winner: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables reports the highest percentage growth in year-over-year Price per sq. ft. (34%), disrupting Surfside and Bal Harbour's winning streak from Q1-Q3
• Up: Other neighborhoods posting an increase in year-over-year Price per sq. ft. include Fisher Island (8%), Edgewater (3%), and Greater Downtown Miami (3%)
• Flat: Mid/North Beach posts no change in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft.
• Down: Neighborhoods posting a decline in year-over-year Price per sq. ft. – South Beach (-18%), Surfside & Bal Harbour (-11%), Brickell (-11%), and Sunny Isles Beach (-3%)

Miami Neighborhood 4Q20-over-4Q19 Median Price per Sq. Ft. Comparison - Fig. 2.4

Q4 2020 Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.5)

• Winner: Fisher Island reports the highest percentage growth in year-over-year Median Sales Price (22%), replacing the third-quarter's winner of Edgewater
• Winner: Fisher Island also reports the highest Median Sales Price in Q4 at $5.1 million,  from its third-quarter median of $4.2 million 
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in quarterly year-over-year Median Sales Price -- Mid/North Beach (12%) and Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (10%)
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decrease in quarterly year-over-year Median Sales Price included Surfside & Bal Harbour (-27%), South Beach (-14%), Greater Downtown Miami (-8%), Sunny Isles Beach (-7%), Brickell (-7%), and Edgewater (-4%)

Miami Neighborhood 4Q20-over-4Q19 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.5

4Q 2020 Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year 

Below is a detailed analysis of how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q4 2020 on the basis of age of construction, categorized as new construction buildings (2015-2020), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 buildings.

• New Construction Buildings post highest sales to date, tripling those of Q2 2020 (67 sales versus 23 sales) + stable prices from Q2 to Q4
• Buildings Dated 2000-2014 posted strong sales growth again, increasing 36% quarter-over-quarter + marginal decrease in year-over-year value
• Condos Built before 2000 post highest sales in a fourth-quarter of all the years under review + stability in year-over-year value

Miami New Construction Condos Built 2015-2020

Making higher peaks almost every other quarter, sales in this newly built section soared to 67 in Q4 2020, tripling those in Q2 2020. The segment reported a 42% increase in year-over-year sales and 26% increase over its previous quarter (Fig. 3.1).

Looking at Fig. 3.2 reveals the Price per Square Foot on this newly built segment stayed flat from Q2 to Q4. Closing the year at $937/sq. ft., luxury condo buyers got to enjoy the benefit of competitive pricing over the last three quarters. Price per Sq. Ft. in the segment was down 17% year-over-year (Fig. 2.4).

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2020 - Fig. 3.1

Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Prices per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Built 2015-2020) - Fig. 3.2

Miami Luxury Condos Built 2000-2014

Again, sales for condos built 2000-2014 reported a great boost in Q4, increasing to 2.5 times levels in Q2 2020. The segment reported a 24% increase in year-over-year sales and 36% increase over the previous quarter (Fig. 3.3).

Looking at fig. 3.4 below reveals the Price per Sq. Ft. for the segment declined slightly year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Closing the year at $727/sq. ft., the Price per Sq. Ft. was down 3% from Q3 2020, as well as same quarter last year (Fig. 3.4).

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3

Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4

Miami Luxury Condos Built Before 2000

For Miami's older luxury buildings, Q4 sales doubled compared to Q2 2020. Also posting the highest sales in a fourth-quarter since 2015, this classic segment reported a 36% increase in quarter-over-quarter and a 62% increase in its year-over-year sales (Fig. 3.5).

Looking at fig. 3.6 reveals that the Price per Sq. Ft. on this mature segment stayed flat quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, closing the year at $633 per square foot.

Quarterly Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5

Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft.  (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6

Overall Miami Luxury Condos Days on Market Down 

Days on Market drop 27.2% quarter-over-quarter and 7.3% on annual basis, indicating a correction

With luxury condo sales soaring over Q3 and Q4, the number of days on market declined drastically quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, as well as on a 2019-2020 annual basis.

Overall, luxury condos in Miami spent 10 fewer days on the market in 2020 compared to 2019 (Fig. 1.1.1). On a quarter-over-quarter basis, they spent 43 fewer days on market in Q4 compared to Q3 2020 (Fig. 4.1). Additionally, luxury condos spent 11 fewer days on market in Q4 2020 compared to the same quarter last year.

All of these trends collectively indicate that buyer demand is increasing, and at the same time, buyer-seller communication improved drastically over the course of the year, along with added sales momentum, to bring the days on market down for luxury condos in Miami.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2020 - Fig. 4.1

Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market

Annual Neighborhood Days on Market Trends 2019-over-2020 (Fig. 4.2)

• Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour (combined) posted the greatest decline of 53 days in their Median Days on Market (-29%)
• A majority of the neighborhoods posted a decline in their Median Days on Market for luxury condos in Miami – South Beach (-28%), Fisher Island (-28%), Edgewater (-13%), and Mid/North Beach (-2%)
• Flat: Sunny Isles Beach (-1%) reported flat Days on Market on an annual analysis
• Neighborhoods reporting an increase in their Median Days on Market include Brickell (26%), Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (24%), and Greater Downtown Miami (11%)

Q4-2020 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Days on Market Trends (Fig. 4.3)

• Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour (combined) post the greatest decline of 152 days in their quarterly Median Days on Market (-60%)
• A majority of the neighborhoods posted a decline in their quarterly Median Days on Market for luxury condos – South Beach (-49%), Fisher Island (-47%), Mid/North Beach (-22%), and Brickell (-22%)
• Flat: Greater Downtown Miami (-1%) reports a flat Days on Market on its year-over-year analysis
• Neighborhoods reporting an increase in their quarterly Median Days on Market include Edgewater (10%), Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (7%), and Sunny Isles Beach (7%)

Miami Neighborhood 2020-over-2019 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2

Miami Neighborhood 4Q20-Over-4Q19 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.3

Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Down to Lowest Since March 2019

2020 closes with 33 months of inventory 

With sales making record progress and prices staying flat year-over-year, it is exciting to see how a good chunk of inventory was reduced by the end of December, even with the pandemic stalling momentum mid-year. At 33 months, inventory dropped 32% quarter-over-quarter and 25% year-over-year (see fig. 5.1)

As the months of inventory inch closer towards their ideal benchmark of 9-12 months, we expect the luxury condo market to tip over from its buyer-friendly situation to a balanced condition soon. We also expect buyers to seize opportunities presented by flat year-over-year prices, keeping this sales momentum going into the first quarter of 2021 at least.

Search for luxury condos for sale in Miami here.

Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 5.1

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Conclusion

Miami luxury condo market posts strong recovery, shifting towards seller's market

The luxury condo market in Miami ended 2020 with a bang. As overall sales posted an extraordinary recovery in the last quarter, not only did the market pull out of the pandemic-caused slowdown, but also registered one of the strongest fourth-quarters we've seen in over 6 years of our reporting. 

With almost all of the neighborhoods in our analysis reporting positive year-end sales (Mid/North Beach being the only exception), the total annual sales of 2020 caught up to those in 2019, posting just a -2.2% drop, which is remarkable. Further, total sales in 2020 outperformed those from 2016 to 2018, making this an exceptional year for the luxury condo market in Miami.

The progression of the 12-Month Sales Trendline perfectly captured this growth over the course of 2020, as it corrected from a negative curve in Q1 and Q2 to a flat in Q3 and ultimately, soaring positive in Q4.

As a response to this incredible momentum, the Months of Inventory and Days on Market also dropped significantly in Q4 on a 2020-over-2019 annual basis. Condo inventory is also correcting, dropping to almost half by year-end (33 months) from its peak of 57 months in June.

On the price front, both the Median Sales Price and Price per Square Foot declined over the fourth quarter. This provided some buyers the added motivation they needed to buy their perfect Miami condo. On an annual basis, both the Median Price per Square Foot and Sales Price were flat, showing that sellers did not lose value, regardless of the pandemic. Luxury condos in the combined neighborhood of Surfside & Bal Harbour plus Edgewater posted maximum gains in Condo BlackBook's 2020-over-2019 annual analysis.

We expect to see sales momentum continue into the first quarter of 2021 (for all the reasons listed below). This momentum coupled with historical data that the second quarter of the year is usually the best, we expect Miami's luxury condo market to shift into a neutral climate from its ongoing buyer-friendly cycle in the first half of 2021. It could also be possible to see some pockets, such as Fisher Island, Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (with the lowest inventory of 15 months), to transition into a seller's market in the near quarters. This is important for both buyers and sellers to note. 

With properties still offered at flat-to-competitive pricing, we highly recommend buyers to take advantage of this likely impending market shift, ending the long-running favorable buyer's market cycle. You can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami here.

Miami's Luxury Condo Market Prediction: Where Does the Market Go From Here?

2020 was undoubtedly a year full of firsts and uncertainties. As the year progressed, so did Miami's luxury condo market. The year-end numbers went soaring, annual numbers stabilized, and the market seems to have made a full recovery. So, where does the Miami luxury condo market in Miami go from here as we enter 2021?

We expect the following factors to influence the luxury condo market's performance over the next two quarters: 

An Avalanche of Sales. Miami has long been an attractive haven for buyers from high-tax states as well as those up north with chilling winters such as New York. Warm, sunny winters, balmy beaches, and a favorable tax environment, including corporate tax incentives, continues to attract domestic buyers. We are seeing a strong uptick in buyers from the Northeast as well as California. 

Additionally, with the pandemic changing work policies for most, people now have the flexibility to work from anywhere. A home office by the ocean set in Miami's diverse cultural scene and with multitudes of luxury condo options to choose are key selling points. (Watch and read more on this here with our featured story from The Next Miami.)

Miami - the Next Power City? As 2020 made most of us reconsider major life decisions, corporations to power players are re-evaluating their circumstances as well. Again, Florida's no income tax policy along with ready access to the South American market and great quality of life saw the likes of Icahn Enterprises to Payless Shoes as well as David Blumberg to David and Victoria Beckham set up shop/home in Miami. We expect this influx of established big business, tech and finance corps to continue to populate South Florida, further increasing interest in this luxury segment of the real estate market. Read more about who's moving to Miami here.

Elections are Over. Now that the Presidential elections are behind us, we expect a lot of buyers who may have been sitting on the fence for months due to market questions will feel confident about taking the next step to either move to South Florida or complete the purchase of a new property here. 

Inventory Decreases Continue with Signs of Market Corrections. With fewer pre-construction deliveries expected in the near future, sales continuing at current or an increased pace, and a decreased availability of luxury single-family homes, we expect inventory to continue to decrease over the first two quarters of 2021. This will set the Miami luxury condo market up to shift to a neutral, or possibly even to a seller's market in some pockets such as Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (which has the lowest months of inventory at 15), within the first half of the year.

If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.

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