Miami Overall Luxury Condo Report - Q2 2021

The second quarter of 2021 marks the third consecutive quarter of booming sales for Miami's luxury condo market. Powered by businesses and people continuing to move to South Florida (first sparked by Icahn Enterprises in 2020), luxury condo sales in Miami have shown unprecedented growth. There have been more sales in the first half of 2021 than in all of 2020 or 2019 (1229 sales versus 715 and 718 sales, respectively).

Backed by exceptional momentum - to the tune of a record-breaking 754 sales in this last quarter - the luxury condo market has officially made it out of its long-standing buyer-friendly position. Miami's luxury condo market has now corrected to a seller's market, with inventory at 9 months, its lowest-ever in over 6 years of our reporting.With so much demand, and sellers regaining control, prices are also steadily increasing. 

Looking at specific neighborhoods, Fisher Island holds as the most expensive neighborhood, along with all other sub-markets reporting higher year-over-year median prices per square foot. Days on Market has also started to decrease as older inventory has sold.

Read below for our in-depth analysis of the quarterly data on how prices, days on market, and inventory are responding to these record numbers and explosive changes in our full-length Q2 2021 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report:

This luxury condo market report only includes data for properties priced $1 million and above, and covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (including Edgewater and Brickell), Miami Beach (inclusive of South Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach and Fisher Island), as well as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Q2 2021 - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

• Brickell, Greater Downtown, and Mid-North Beach are Miami's most popular neighborhoods, leading Q2 sales growth with a 1100%, 1014%, and 922% surge year-over-year, respectively
• Record-shattering Q2 2021, posts highest quarterly sales in more than 6 years as well as higher than Q1 2021 (also record-breaking)
• 12-month sales trendline keeps positive from Q4 2020 through to Q2 2021
• Overall Prices up – Median Sales Price up 10.9% and Price per Sq. Ft. by 9.7% year-over-year
• Fisher Island is the most expensive neighborhood of Q2 2021, reporting a median price of $1,644/sq. ft. – maintaining its top spot for 3 straight quarters
• Sunny Isles Beach's luxury condos offer maximum value to sellers with highest percentage growth (39%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft., followed by Surfside and Bal Harbour (32%)
• All building segments (newly built to classic) report strong sales growth – with buildings dated 2000-2014 posting the highest sales volume of all
• Sellers received maximum return on investment (ROI) for condos in new construction buildings built 2015-2021
• Days on Market down 12% year-over-year
• Inventory drops 84% year-over-year to 9 months, owing to intense market momentum
• Fisher Island posts the lowest inventory (5 months) of all Miami neighborhoods, closely followed by South Beach, Mid/North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, plus Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (7 months each)
• Miami's luxury condo segment is now in a Seller's Market

Table of Contents

1. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales
3. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
4. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
5. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Price Trends by Building Year
6. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
7. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
9. Conclusion
10. Where does the Miami Luxury Condo Market go from Here?
    
    

Miami Luxury Condo Sales at Record-High

Q2 2021 Condo sales reach record-high - Skyrocket 625% year-over-year

For a third consecutive quarter, sales for Miami's luxury condos have been on a strong upward trajectory. While the second quarter of the year is generally the busiest, this is the strongest quarter we've seen in over 6 years of our reporting (and before from personal experience, see Fig. 1.2).

With a record-breaking 754 closed sales reported in Q2 2021, the market has touched unprecedented heights. Sales are 1.6 times higher than those in Q1 2021 and an astounding 625% higher than the same quarter 2020.

When comparing the quarter to pre-pandemic quarters, this quarter still outpaces any previous period. A look at the pre-pandemic levels of Q2 2019 (Fig. 1.1a) shows a 254% growth in year-over-year sales – backing the fact that this impressive leap goes beyond anything the market has witnessed in a long time. This momentum keeps the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 1.4 a soaring positive from Q4 2020 to Q1 2021, and now in Q2 2021.

Looking at the Monthly Sales chart of Fig. 1.3, volumes seem to have peaked during the month of April (271 sales). While May closed with 250 sales, June closed a little lower at 233. This leads us to ask "whether the market has seen its apex?" "Will we see a new record next quarter/year?"

Regardless of whether the market retains momentum or not, this continued boom has tipped the scales in favor of the seller. After years of Miami being a buyer-friendly market, the area's luxury condo segment is finally a seller's market. 

• Q2 2021 sales alone are larger than Q2 2020 and Q2 2019 combined (754 > 104 + 213 sales). 
• Sales in the first half of 2021 are already greater than the total annual sales in any preceding year (1299 sales versus 715 in 2020, or 718 in 2019).

What's Powering this Sales Boom? As mentioned in previous reports, South Florida has become the top choice for businesses migrating from key financial and tech cities from the Northeast, Midwest, and California, including San Francisco, the Bay area, and New York City. Following this gold rush of office relocations, a growing number of business owners, founders, CEOs, key talent, and their followers are buying luxury properties in the Tri-County area. This has led to the record-breaking sales we've been witnessing since Q4 2020, in addition to the usual buyer interest we get from Central and South America, Mexico and the rest of the world. The increasingly-accepted work from home or remote working culture is another key contributor to this boom.

Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 1.2

Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to Jun. 2021 - Fig. 1.3

Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4

Q2 2021 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales

Q2 2021 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Sales Trends (Fig. 1.5)

• Winners: Brickell reports the highest percentage (1100%) growth in year-over-year sales, followed by Greater Downtown Miami (1014%) and Mid/North Beach (922%) 
• Up: All Miami neighborhoods post an increase in year-over-year sales, reporting an extraordinary recovery from pandemic-year lows – Edgewater (900%), Sunny Isles Beach (794%), Surfside and Bal Harbour (508%), South Beach (489%), Fisher Island (429%), and Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (306%)

More in-depth analysis and details are available in dedicated reports for Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach and the Barrier Islands, plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 2Q21-over-2Q20 - Fig. 1.5

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Prices Up - Price per Square Foot Peaks

Price per square foot up 9.7% to a record-high of $899. Median Price up 10.9% year-over-year. As Miami's luxury condo market swiftly transitions into a seller's market, both the price per square foot and sales price continue to increase with sales. This means that sellers are receiving good value for their condo investments in Miami, as buyers continue to meet, and often exceed price expectations with their offers.

Q2 2021 reported the highest Median Price per Square Foot in 5 years -- the price is up 9.7% from $819/sq. ft. in Q2 2020 to $899/sq. ft. this second-quarter 2021 (see Fig. 2.1).

The overall Median Sales Price for luxury condos in Miami also increased (10.9%) from $1,645,000 in Q2 of the previous year to $1,825,000 in Q2 2021 (see Fig. 1.1).

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2021 - Fig. 2.1

Q2 2021 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Price per Square Foot & Sales Price

Q2 2021 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Price Trends

Median Price per Sq. Ft. (Fig. 2.2)

• Winner: Fisher Island continues as the most expensive neighborhood, for the third quarter in a row, with a median price of $1,644/sq. ft.
• Winner: Sunny Isles Beach reports the highest percentage growth of 39% in its year-over-year Price per Square Foot, closely followed by Surfside and Bal Harbour with a 32% increase
• All other Miami neighborhoods too report an increase in their year-over-year Price per Square Foot -- Fisher Island (25%), South Beach (20%), Edgewater (12%), Greater Downtown Miami (12%), Brickell (10%), Mid/North Beach (9%), Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (7%)

Miami Neighborhood 2Q21-over-2Q20 Median Price per Square Foot. Comparison - Fig. 2.2

Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.3)

• Winner: Sunny Isles Beach reports the highest percentage growth in year-over-year Median Sales Price at 41%, replacing Coconut Grove & Coral Gables from the top spot in Q1 2021
• Winner: Fisher Island continues to report the highest Median Sales Price for a fourth consecutive quarter, now at $6.1 million in Q2 2021 
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in quarterly year-over-year Median Sales Price include South Beach (27%), Fisher Island (26%), Mid/North Beach (19%), Surfside & Bal Harbour (9%), and Brickell (9%)
• Flat: The Greater Downtown Miami grouping posted a negligible change in year-over-year Median Sales Price (+1%)
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in quarterly year-over-year Median Sales Price included Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (-7%) plus Edgewater (-9%)

Miami Neighborhood 2Q21-over-2Q20 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3

Q2 2021 Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year

Below is a detailed analysis of how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q2 2021 on the basis of age of construction of the condo building, categorized as new construction buildings (2015-2021), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 buildings.

• New Construction Buildings continued to report new highs in sales + best value for sellers with a 24% increase in year-over-year prices
• Buildings Dated 2000-2014 posted record-high sales + highest sales volume (348) of all 3 segments under review + good increase in year-over-year value
• Condos Built before 2000 posted record-high sales + 5.2% increase in year-over-year value

Miami New Construction Condos Built 2015-2021

Echoing the overall trend, this freshly built segment continues to set new records, reporting its highest peak-to-date at 250 sales. Topping its performance from Q1 2021, sales were 1.8 times higher quarter-over-quarter and more than 10 times higher than those in Q2 2020 (see fig. 3.1).

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2021 - Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2 reveals the Price per Square Foot increased an impressive 24% year-over-year and 7.5% quarter-over-quarter. Closing the quarter at $1,156/sq. ft., luxury condo sellers received the best value (out of all 3 segments) for their investments in this newly built category (see Fig. 3.2).

Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot (Buildings Built 2015-2021) - Fig. 3.2

Miami Luxury Condos Built 2000-2014

Reporting the highest sales volume of all 3 segments under review, sales for luxury condos built 2000-2014 spiked 1.6 times the sales in Q1 2021 and almost 7 times those in Q2 last year. This jump captures the growing popularity of this building segment with buyers (see Fig. 3.3).

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3

Looking at Fig. 3.4 below, the Price per Square Foot shows a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year increase for buildings built between 2000-2014. At $857/sq. ft., the Price per Square Foot is marginally up 1.3% from Q1 2021 and 1.9% compared to Q2 last year (Fig. 3.4).

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4

Miami Luxury Condos Built Before 2000

Miami's older luxury buildings reported a strong Q2 2021, in sync with the growth seen in Miami overall. Posting record-high Sales in over 6 years, volumes increased 1.4 times those in Q1 2021 and 5 times those in Q2 last year (see Fig. 3.5).

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5

Looking at Fig. 3.6, the Price per Square Foot for this mature segment closed at $714/sq. ft. in Q2 2021. Offering good value to sellers, prices increased 2.1% quarter-over-quarter and 5.2% year-over-year.

Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft.  (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6

Overall Miami Luxury Condos - Days on Market down QoQ + YoY

Days on Market down 19.5% quarter-over-quarter. In Q2 2021, luxury condos spent 23 fewer days on market compared to Q1 this year (Fig. 4.1). In a year-over-year comparison, luxury condos properties spent 13 fewer days on market (DOM) compared to Q2 2020, posting a 12% decline year-over-year.

Even with sales posting new highs, the Days on Market metric has taken a few cycles to come down. This is most likely due to the oldest properties on the market finally being sold. It is also quite a positive trend for Miami's luxury condo market, showing that buyers are quickly meeting seller expectations, even with prices increasing in Miami.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2021 - Fig. 4.1

Q2 2021 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market

Q2 2021 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Days on Market Trends (Fig. 4.2)

• Winner: Brickell posts the greatest decline of 157 days in its quarterly Median Days on Market (-60%)
• Other neighborhoods posting a decline in their Median Days on Market for luxury condos in Miami – Greater Downtown Miami (-48%), Edgewater (-31%), Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (-23%), Mid/North Beach (-16%), Surfside and Bal Harbour (-6%)
• Up: Miami neighborhoods reporting an increase in their year-over-year Median Days on Market include South Beach (4%) and Fisher Island (27%)
• Flat: Sunny Isles Beach (+1%) reports a flat Days on Market in its year-over-year analysis 

Miami Neighborhood 2Q21-Over-2Q20 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2

Luxury Condo Inventory Down to All-time Low of 9 months  – Now a Seller's Market

Q2 2021 closes with 9 months of inventory. With inventory down to half of what it was last quarter (18 months at March-end), Miami's luxury condo market has transitioned into a seller-friendly market. Steadily dropping down from its June 2020 peak of 57 months, inventory is down to only 9 months – an 84% decline – wiping off a major portion of market inventory in just one year's time (see Fig. 5.1).

At 9 months, the market has hit the ideal 9-12-month benchmark - a correction sellers have long been waiting for. Officially a seller's market, we recommend buyers to put in their offers, as quickly as possible, to reserve their desired Miami home or investment condo. With inventory going scarce and still some time before newly built condos land on the market, buyers will find this to be a highly competitive climate. Sellers, on the other hand, will benefit hugely from multiple offers and having the liberty to cash in on their investments at desired prices should they want to sell.

Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Jun. 2021 - Fig. 5.1

A balanced market has about 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Overall Luxury Condo Market - 2Q 2021 Conclusion

Seller's market cycle takes over with record-high sales and record-low inventory

The Miami real estate market continues in perform in overdrive. Sales of luxury condos in the city have surged in demand since Q4 2020, translating into numbers reaching new heights and record-breaking numbers posted with each passing quarter.

While the second quarter is (historically) known to be the strongest of the year, nobody could have predicted it to post a total of 754 sales this quarter. This is the highest number of quarterly sales we've seen in more than 6 years of our reporting (and from before by personal experience). In fact, the half-year (aggregate) sales of 2021 are already higher than the total annual sales of 2020, 2019, or any other past year under review. The market has left the pandemic's effects far behind and catapulted into an unprecedented era of growth, which can be seen in a positive trending 12-month sales trendline for the overall market.

This record-breaking growth can also be seen across the board, as all Miami neighborhoods under review post a surge in sales and other metrics. Of these, Brickell, Greater Downtown, and Mid-North Beach standout, reporting a 1100%, 1014%, and 922% increase in year-over-year sales, respectively.

While the most obvious question here would be "whether the market will be able to sustain this wild momentum," for now Miami's luxury condo segment importantly has moved out of its long-drawn buyer-friendly cycle. With buyers controlling prices and the market for over 6 years, sellers now have the opportunity to make exceptional gains from their investments. This is reflected by an increase in the price per square foot for Miami overall – up 9.7% year-over-year in Q2 2021. Of all the Miami neighborhoods under review, luxury condos in Sunny Isles Beach plus Surfside and Bal Harbour offered the highest year-over-year increase in value to sellers in Miami (39% and 32%).

The Days on Market trend has also caught up. With the metric increasing over the past two quarters, in spite of good sales momentum, it seems that all the previously listed inventory is finally off the market as the overall trend reports a year-over-year decline in Q2 2021. Even on a neighborhood-level, a majority of the sub-markets report a decrease in the days spent on market by luxury condos – with only Fisher Island and South Beach as the exceptions posting an increase.

With inventory down to an all-time low of 9 months, the market has corrected to favor sellers – something we've been expecting for the past few cycles. Although we expected the pandemic to delay this correction; on the contrary, it has accelerated the same. With the lowest levels of inventory for luxury condos we've seen in over 6 years, the market has ample time to recalibrate before the next set of new construction condos hit the market, making sure levels keep low.

For buyers looking to see the kind of inventory available on the market, you can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami here.

Miami's Luxury Condo Market Prediction 2021: Where Does the Market Go From Here?

With three consecutive quarters posting new sales highs, Miami's luxury condo market is undoubtedly booming. However, with sales peaking in April and suggesting a market apex, it begs the question, "where will the luxury condo market in Miami go from here into 2021?"

We expect the following factors to influence the Miami luxury condo market's performance over the remaining half of 2021: 

Continued business migration and incoming buyers. As expected, with more and more businesses planning or executing their move to South Florida, Miami continues to see higher demand in luxury housing. The general consensus of a better quality of life, less extreme weather, more sun, life next to the water, and higher tax savings is pushing people from the West, Midwest and Northeast to move.

Work from home flexibility and year-round appeal. With offices considering hybrid work models or switching permanently to a work from home arrangement, more people have the freedom to settle into that home office by the ocean or in a future-ready building. Add to that warm and sunny winters, balmy beaches, breezy outdoor spaces, year-round events (once things are back to normal), and no personal income tax, the appeal is irresistible for many.

Fewer travel restrictions and safer investments. With vaccines becoming readily available and restrictions easing up on domestic as well as international travel, buyers are beginning to come to Miami in droves. Miami has always been a hot favorite among South American buyers, providing them with a safe haven to park their investment money (away from the political unrest of their home countries). Couple that with the recent surge in domestic demand, and we expect the current sales momentum to continue, adjusting only slightly for seasonal variances noticed in previous years.

Inventory to stay low. Although luxury condo developers in Miami have stepped up to meet the recent surge in demand for high-end housing, it will take a while for all the inventory to be delivered. With fewer deliveries and sales continuing at their current (or even slower) pace, we expect inventory levels to stay low in this seller's market.

If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.

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Cover photo by Antonio Cuellar from Pexels